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Tuesday, May 13, 2014

A pause in the action today as the Dow gained 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Back to having the small stocks weaker than the Dow.  I again, don't trust light volume rallies but that doesn't mean that we can't drift higher during expiration week.  Retail sales were flat.  We are still short term overbought on the major index technicals and have been for a while.  This condition will not last forever.  I would not trust this rally to continue for very long.  GE was up just a touch and the volume was pretty weak.  No trades in mind here.  Gold was slightly off as the US dollar had a good day again.  It appears that the 79 level for the dollar has once again provided support.  The XAU was off 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had little movement on very light volume.  My June ABX calls are now slightly in the red.  No movement and no interest for gold and the gold shares here.  Perhaps rolling into the June contract for this trade was not a good idea.  Time will tell.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All signs point to higher prices near term unless there is a sharp reversal.  We are in a low volume drift higher and I don't think that will end this week.  I could be wrong.  Inflation data on tap the next couple of days.  Gold is still stuck between $1280 and $1320.  The Bollinger bands are getting very close together on the precious metal daily charts, so a big move one way or the other is coming.  I'm hoping it is to the upside for the sake of my June ABX calls.  The short term technicals here are oversold and have been.  The opposite of the major stock indexes technicals.  Something will give, sooner or later.  As always we'll be watching the foreign markets overnight and see what happens tomorrow.

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