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Monday, May 19, 2014

Upside to start the week as the Dow rose 20 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is constructive moving forward for the bulls.  We can't trust that light volume though.  Also the negative seasonal period that we are in will rear its head sooner or later.  That is my thought for today at least.  Not a lot of economic data this week but we do get the Fed minutes on Wednesday.  No trades in mind right now for the OEX as the technicals are mid-range.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was very light.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed on the session.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX and GG were off pennies, while NEM fell 2/3.  Volume was light to average.  The gold shares are oversold on a short and medium term time frame and remain that way.  I will try the calls here again at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My trading scenario here is to wait for the stock indices to get either overbought or oversold and then trade the opposite way.  There are no valid signals at the moment.  So it will have to be a waiting game for now.  The June option cycle has an extra week tacked on to it, so that shouldn't be a problem.  Gold continues to frustrate as it basically moves sideways.  Sooner or later it will break out one way or the other.  When that occurs will be the time to get on board.  The continued oversold nature of this market without any sustained upside is frustrating.  Not to mention expensive when trading long without any profit.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and take it from there in the morning.

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