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Friday, May 02, 2014

An interesting session as the employment report was better than expected but the market reactions were not.  The Dow fell 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We started off with a rally but could not hold it.  Problems in the Ukraine surfaced again as the selling excuse.  We are still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  The summation index is grinding higher though.  I thought that we would be heading to new all time highs on some of the stock indexes.  Perhaps next week.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold rose almost $20 on the futures but backed off in the aftermarket.  A nice move despite higher jobs numbers.  The US dollar was up early but could not hold the gains and finished the day basically unchanged.  The XAU was up 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains.  Volume was nothing special.  GG is now the out performer for the big three.  My May ABX calls are still in the red.  The important weekly up trend line is still holding for now.  If it does we should see some gains for ABX next week.  That may allow me to break even on this trade.  Could just be wishful thinking.  However, when ABX has reached this trend line in the past, it has rallied for over a week.  We'll see what transpires this time around.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still closer to a top than to a bottom for the major stock indexes in my opinion.  Even if new highs occur it isn't a time to be overly bullish in my opinion.  We could not rally on good news and could be a problem next week.  So stay tuned.  Gold on the other hand rallied today despite a strong employment report.  We still haven't broken the down trend line that began in March though.  The problem for the May ABX call trade could be simply sideways action in the coming weeks.  Next week should sort things out as to whether this trade will be a winner or a loser.  I'll be keeping an eye on what happens in the Ukraine this weekend.  I do know that next weekend there is another separation vote coming up.  Not sure I can hang on to this trade that long though.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  UPDATE:  I have just got the McClellan oscillator reading for today.  The past couple of trading sessions has given a signal here that a big move is coming in the stock indexes within the next day or two.  It doesn't indicate which direction the move will be, only that something is brewing.  Take note.

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