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Friday, May 23, 2014

Onward and upward as the Dow gained 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just a little over 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market remains stronger than the Dow.  The Dow transports reached another record high.  Perhaps my hypothesis of the rising wedge in the stock indices is wrong.  We are almost to the level on the OEX that I had in mind to purchase some OEX puts.  The short term technicals are moving to overbought.  GE was flat on the session with extremely light volume.  Gold lost a couple of bucks on the futures while the US dollar continued higher.  The XAU dropped 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  This group has stagnated as it grinds its way lower.  I will try the ABX calls again at some point again but when, I don't know.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices continue to move higher.  There doesn't appear to be anything to be in the way of higher prices.  The only caveat here is the volume, which has been week.  The summation index has been moving back and forth without a trend either way.  I'm still leaning towards the cautious side for stocks here.  However I can't rule out some sort of last pop to the upside which would follow the transports.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold remains in a sideways channel.  $1280 on the bottom and $1320 on the top.  The Bollinger bands are so close now that whatever way it turns out, it will be huge and hopefully trade worthy.  There is no sense in trying to guess which way it will break.  I've already tried that unsuccessfully despite the technical signals.  A long holiday weekend to ponder my next move with the markets.  Plenty of charts to check as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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