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Thursday, May 01, 2014

A waiting game on tomorrows employment numbers as the Dow fell 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving higher.  My guess is that we will move higher tomorrow regardless of the data.  Of course that is just a guess.  We're still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  The small stocks acted better today and that is a plus.  So we'll see what the market reaction is tomorrow.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $12 on the futures.  The US dollar was only a bit higher.  Nobody wants to own gold here.  The XAU fell 1 1/4.  ABX and NEM lost 1/3, while GG was flat on the release of its earnings report.  The May ABX calls I have are now 50% losers.  ABX is on the precipice of breaking a longer term up trend line dating back to last July.  However if the line holds, there is a slight chance these options could make it back towards break even.  Hasn't happened yet.  Only a couple of weeks to go here as well for the May option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling kind of stupid as gold did not rally with the weak data out so far this week.  If what you are trading can't get higher on good news, there's a problem.  I probably should have just gotten out with a small loss yesterday.  Hindsight is never wrong.  Some of the major stock indexes look poised to set new all time highs.  Could happen tomorrow, including the Dow.  I'm thinking that they will but anything can happen in this game.  Gold remains unloved along with the gold shares.  Only a very weak jobs report combined with an invasion of the Ukraine will turn the precious metal around at this point.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and await the all important employment report tomorrow.

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