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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The grind higher continues as the Dow gained 23 points on light volume. The advances barely beat out the declines. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The advance is really starting to look thin as the advance/declines are not strong. However the trend remains up until we get some type of meaningful decline. Hasn't happened yet but be aware that it could commence at any time. That's my guess of the situation at the moment. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Moving sideways at a slightly higher level but no breakout as of yet. I'm not planning on buying the March calls anymore but I suppose that could change. Gold moved higher today as the US dollar was lower. The precious metals futures were up $13. The XAU was up 3 7/8. ABX up almost a buck, GG rose 1 2/3 and NEM gained 1/2. Volume was average. My ABX calls are back in the black. We are getting close to breaking through the resistance at $50 for both ABX and GG. GG is acting much better though and the option premiums reflect that. We will need to see good volume as we move above $50 on these 2 stocks to be sure that the breakout is valid. If it even happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Overall stock indices are overbought as they have been for weeks on end. I would not be surprised to see some near term weakness but I do expect higher prices into the March expiration. Gold is approaching the $1800 level and I would expect to see some hesitation or consolidation there. The US dollar is close to the 78 level and I see support there at 77. That level on the US dollar is a logical place to take the profits on gold in my opinion. That is where I'd like to dump the ABX calls, if I hold them that long. The weekly charts on the gold shares still look constructive to the upside. Of course this could all change tomorrow as the markets will go wherever they want. The Fed beige book and the end of the month are on tap.

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