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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Some downside today on the comments from Ben Bernanke as the Dow fell 53 points on better volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Summation index now falling to the downside. We also have a negative divergence on the RSI for the S&P 500. So perhaps this is the start of something more to the downside than we've seen since the rally started back in December. I'm not totally convinced of that but we'll see what transpires as we move forward. I am now looking at perhaps the OEX calls for March but not just yet. GE fell 1/8 on average volume. We've been moving sideways for two months now. I am no longer considering the March calls here. I will opt to try the OEX if we get an oversold signal on the overall market. Gold was really the story of the day as far as I'm concerned as it got clobbered on the Bernanke babble. The yellow metal fell about $75 on the futures and another $15 in the aftermarket. The US dollar rallied on the Fed chairmans comments. The XAU dropped 6 2/3. ABX down 1 3/4, GG fell 1 1/2 and NEM off by 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. I dumped the ABX calls that I had for a 25% loss. Interestingly enough they were still showing a profit in the first half hour. However I did not have a stop loss order in place and then hesitated to sell since we were so close to breaking out above $50. But the markets will go where they want and adjustments must be made. I was too slow today. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept more. Another trade and another loss. Not good for the confidence level but you've got to keep moving on. Beginning of the month on tap tomorrow. With the negative RSI divergence on the stock indices, I'll most likely be on the sidelines until we get oversold. Which hasn't happened in quite some time. I will also have to let gold settle down before I place another trade there. With March being historically a poor month for the price of gold it seems to be the prudent course of action for now. I'm not happy with the result of the ABX call trade today but there isn't much you can do when you don't put forth the full effort. In retrospect I should have placed a stop loss order when the trade got profitable again yesterday. I also noticed too late this morning that the heavy volume yesterday on the ABX calls did not expand the open interest. In fact the open interest declined significantly. That was another clue that I picked up on when it was already past the point of no return. None of that matters now though. The next trade is what's important.

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