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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Down for much of the session, the Dow made a last half hour rebound and finished the day up 4 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. I'm still a believer in higher prices by the end of the week. The positive expiration bias seems to be in effect. After that, who knows? If I wasn't stuck in the ABX trade, I would perhaps attempt the OEX calls here. Today was probably the day to do that. Hindsight is rarely wrong. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Still moving sideways here. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart here are very tight. That implies a huge move one way or the other as I stated a few days ago. It will happen, it's just a question of when. Gold lost $7 on the futures as the US dollar had a very good day. The XAU fell 2 7/8. ABX down 3/8, GG off 1/3 and NEM dropped 2/3. Volume was good. My ABX February calls, barring a miracle, are dead. Todays loss pretty much sealed that. The only chance would be a rally off the earnings report on Thursday morning. I think that was one of the problems for me on this particular trade. I placed too much emphasis on the earnings and did not listen to the technicals. However the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal is now in effect. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Todays action in the stock indices seems bullish to me, as we tried to sell off but didn't. We've got some Fed news tomorrow and plenty of economic data for the rest of the week. The summation index is starting to move sideways. We'll get through tomorrow and await the ABX earnings on Thursday.

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