Pageviews past week

Friday, February 03, 2012

It was up, up and away from the start as the Dow gained 156 points on the heels of a positive employment report. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive and the volume was good. We simply continue higher regardless of being overbought. That is how it works in bull markets. The summation index continues higher but we are getting pretty high here. There's some room left but I would expect a turn in this indicator at some point in February. It doesn't mean we have to see a big decline in the indices, sideways would also be an option. GE rose 1/4 on average volume. We're still in a sideways channel here but if the overall market is any indication of things to come, GE will break out to the upside. Hasn't happened yet. I'm still interested in the March calls. Gold finally started to pull back as it lost $20 in the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The US dollar finished the day relatively flat despite the better jobs numbers. The XAU fell about 2 1/2. ABX lost 3/4, GG dropped 1 1/8 and NEM shed 1 1/4. Volume was good here and that's a concern for the bullish case going forward. I again placed an order for some ABX February calls but canceled it near the end of the trading session. With only 2 weeks to go in the February option cycle, any option trade here will take on even more risk. The earnings report for ABX comes out the Thursday before expiration this month, adding to the risk as well. Once again there was very heavy volume in the February ABX 50 calls. We will have to see if it expanded the open interest there on Monday as was previously the case. I'm still considering the calls here. Mentally I'm feeling very tired, did not sleep well. The stock indexes continue higher and there is no end in sight. Of course when you start to make statements like that, the end is usually near. Very overbought on the technicals in the stock market. I think that something to the downside will happen this month or at the very least a sideways pause. The timing of such an event, if it occurs, is the question. I have no answers. Gold started to correct today and I'll be checking the charts to see if the February gold share calls are still the proper trade. I think they are. But we all know there are no guarantees in this game. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

No comments: