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Friday, February 10, 2012

We finally got a bit of a pullback today on headline risk as the Dow fell 89 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This action should turn the summation index around as it was getting about as high as it could. Troubles in Greece resurfaced today but really, they never went away in the first place. But that was the focus of the markets today. The short term overbought condition has been relieved in my opinion. Expiration week coming up and all eyes will be on Europe over the weekend and that will set the tone for Monday morning. I have no idea how that will turn out. GE fell 1/4 on light volume and we had a gap lower as well. It isn't bullish. I'll have to rethink my stance on purchasing some March calls here. No trades for me in GE right now. Gold fell around $15 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar had a strong session due to the anxiety out of Europe. The XAU dropped 3 2/3. ABX and GG fell 7/8, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was average. My open order for the ABX calls was filled when we gapped down at the open. I therefore actually got a better price than my limit order. The trade remains at break even but it will probably be a loser if I continue to hold it into late next week. We had a gap down on most of the gold shares and that isn't bullish. Support did not hold. The only way this trade will work is if we get a complete reversal to the upside on Monday morning. That isn't very likely. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept more. We got some downside today in the stock indices but I really don't think that it is the beginning of some huge drop next week. We've got the positive bias of expiration week combined with what I believe is an already short term oversold condition. I could be wrong and often am. The ABX trade is on but I don't think it is going to work out as I desired. I'll have plenty to think about over the weekend and hopefully I'll make the proper decisions. We are back in headline risk mode and that is a tough way to trade. Virtually anything can happen at any time which is always the case when it comes to trading. But a news driven marketplace seems to magnify events one way or the other. It's possible that volatility will return and that makes for a trickier environment. So I'll keep an eye on things over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

1 comment:

RH said...

Hi, I came across your site and wasn’t able to get an email address to contact you. Would you please consider adding a link to my website on your page. Please email me back.

Thanks!

Harry
harry.roger10@gmail.com