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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Back and forth so far this week as the Dow lost 72 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. Earnings disappointments and a weak read on the economy by the Fed were the culprits. Not to mention the overbought condition of the stock indices combined with the resistance at the top of the months long congestion zone. Some hesitation is expected here. GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume. The fact that GE held up rather well today tells me that there is no huge decline coming up for the market. At least that's my theory for today. Could all change with the earnings for GE out on Friday but I don't think so. Gold fell $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The dollar was weaker early but then came back. The XAU got slammed, down 10 1/2 points. ABX fell 2 1/3, GG dropped 2 1/2 and NEM down 3 1/8. Volume increased to the downside and that isn't bullish going forward. My order for the ABX November calls was filled and they are already in the red. Todays price action on the gold shares was very negative considering the price of gold didn't drop that much. No matter. The game plan was to get the November calls ahead of the earnings next week at the price that I felt was right. That much has been accomplished. We'll see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So the next trade has begun and I will have to try and do a better job of managing it than the last one. 2 days left in the October option cycle. Not sure what to think after todays negative action but I still think we are just pausing here before breaking out of the congestion zone. On to Thursday.

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