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Tuesday, October 04, 2011

We had a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. We ended the day with a gain of 153 points on good volume. We were down almost 250 points in the morning. The advance/declines were positive. Is this the short covering rally that we're looking for in order to purchase some OEX puts? Could be. In bear markets we see strong rallies that spring up out of nowhere. Todays action qualifies under that criteria. Is today the end of the recent decline? Time will tell on that one but I'm inclined to think that we aren't done with the downside yet. I could be wrong and often am. GE was up 1/8 in reversal mode as well. Volume was heavy. I thought about putting in the order for the January calls but we are not yet at the price I'm looking for. We also have earnings coming out on October 21st which could complicate things. However I am going to get some calls at some point. Gold took it on the chin today, down over $40 on the futures. The XAU fell 6 1/4 but was lower during the session. ABX dropped about 1 1/2, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM lost 2 bucks. All had heavy volume and also cut their losses dramatically in the final hour of trading. I also considered putting in the orders for the November gold share calls as well. The daily candlestick charts are now looking positive for the gold shares. We are oversold and todays action looks like a bottom has been put in. That could all change tomorrow though in this volatile marketplace. That is just one of the problems here. You don't want to be too early. Mentally I'm doing OK. Fridays employment report still looms big at the end of this week. However a lot of the stock indice charts are now showing bullish candlestick reversals. I still might get some OEX puts before that report is released. Plenty of time left in the October cycle. Might be time for the gold shares as well but not if we get another down leg following Fridays employment report. Nothing is certain in this game as we well know. We'll see if we get any follow through to the upside tomorrow.

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