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Friday, October 14, 2011

It's a grind higher before expiration week as the Dow gained 166 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The sellers have left the building. Short and medium term overbought now but the tone of the market has changed. We're going higher until further notice. The low for the year has been put in. How can I be so sure of this? The summation index is heading higher. Seasonality turns bullish from here until spring. The presidential cycle points to higher prices. Any declines can be bought. The market has started to ignore bad news. This rally hasn't had great volume but I don't think that it matters. I could be wrong but this time I doubt it. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. We are still at the top of the congestion range and probably will break out next week. Earnings due out on Friday. I'll try my best to stay on the sidelines here before that. Gold continues higher with a gain of $15 on the futures. The US dollar was weaker today and it looks like the 2 month rally there is over. The XAU rose 6 1/3. The gold shares have been doing better than gold itself lately and that bodes well for the bullish cause going forward. ABX 1 1/4, GG gained 1 1/2 and NEM continues to lead the way higher, up 3 1/8. Volume was light however but nobody is selling. Declines in the gold shares are being bought. I would still like to try some gold share calls before the earnings coming out the final week of October. I would expect the gold shares to continue higher next week along with the market, pre-option expiration. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The stock indices continue to roll along and there is really nothing to stop them now. Earnings season is upon us and the estimates are so low that even weak numbers will be cheered by the markets. That is the kind of game that this is. Know that and plan accordingly. The only way to play now is from the long side. I have a couple of ideas but getting in now after we've already rallied will not be easy. I'm going to try and not make some kind of short term trade next week but you never know. It really isn't my strong point but some would wonder if I have any strong points at all. No matter. The markets roll on. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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