Ahh yes. It's a holiday. Memorial Day. Our markets are closed. The S&P futures are up a little over a point. Gold is up a little over a dollar. What will be the gameplan for the upcoming week? I'd like to short the OEX tomorrow on some strength for a scalp. But it's risky. And the option prices are still a little high with 3 weeks to go. I do believe the trend is up. I should probably wait for a pullback and then get long into the expiration. I want some gold calls but it is just going straight up and not cooperating with me for a pullback entry point. I'll have to wait I guess. Employment number on friday will loom large. Might just wait for that. The inherent difficulties of trading are apparent. Nobody can predict the future, yet that is what you are trading on. You really just give it your best shot and see what happens. Because anything can happen. Even the most so-called perfect set-ups can fail. But you play the odds and keep working at it. You make it happen just by paying attention and having the discipline to be patient. Pick your spots. There is always another trade and the markets aren't going anywhere. They will always be there for the next trade. The uncertainty is part of the game. You can't control the markets but you had better be able to control yourself. It's an ongoing battle...

Sloppy nowhere pre-holiday session. Markets not moving much as to be expected. Still overbought and a short play really is in order for a scalp. Would not be surprised to see a down tuesday when we reopen. If we get some strength tuesday morning maybe I'll do it. Otherwise it's time to relax for a few days. I'll get back here sometime this weekend...

Another solid up day. Dow up 100 points with around 20 minutes to go. OEX is right up against a downtrend line. It is overbought. I would like to have the guts to short it here for a scalp. But it can stay overbought for a while. And if it breaks through this line it will take off, short-term. It is a trade set-up, but I won't do it. Actually for the equity markets the way to play here is from the long side. Gold is up $7 today. However the XAU is not taking off and only up a point and change. NEM is up less than 50 cents. I think this is the end of the upmove in the XAU for now. It should fall back to its uptrend line here I think. If and when it falls back will be when I have to decide to trade it or not. I still would like to sit out this week, if possible. Tomorrow is a friday before a long holiday weekend. Should be slow. I'm going to sit it out. Hopefully.

Half hour to go. Market not doing much today. Choppy action, running in place. Advance/declines solidly positive though. We are getting overbought but the options are still pricey. Waiting this week out should be the course of action. Gold was barely up and a doji has appeared on the futures after an uptrend. My hope is that it takes a rest here for a while. The ideal situation would be a pullback again to the weekly uptrendline on the XAU. But the markets hardly ever accommodate the ideal. NEM is down around .25, while the XAU is flat. I will be looking to buy calls on a pullback. As always timing will be the key and the most difficult thing to do. Long holiday weekend coming up. Tomorrow should be the last day this week for serious money. GDP revision comes out. So I should take it easy. Observe and recharge my mental batteries. Let this month finish and have June begin. I suppose it is best not to burn out on the trading. It can eat you up and affect other areas of your life if you're not careful. You have to be aware of what's happening in the trading world but it doesn't have to consume you all the time. You gotta pick your spots. Taking a mental break is good. Sure, you eat, live and breath the markets. However there is room for other things. And clearing out your brain once in a while will make it fresher for the trading days ahead. So I will go ahead and relax for the rest of this week and the long weekend. But always on the lookout for new ideas and the next trade...

Huge rally today. Dow up 150 points with 20 minutes to go. Volume better than lately. XAU and NEM up decent also. Advance/declines solidly positive. And so it goes. The decline is over. Is this the beginning of the next leg up in a bull market or are we just going to the top of the trading range? And where are the profitable trades from here? It's never easy. I'll have to wait for the OEX to get to the downtrend line and decide from there. We are getting short-term overbought now. NEM is another story. I'd like to see some type of pullback before taking a position but that may not happen. I suppose I'll be on the sidelines for now. Not much else I can do. The markets will always go where they want and do what they want. They say the market is always right. I think that the markets simply exist. They are there for those good enough to take profits out of them, either long or short. You have got to learn how to listen to them and you've got to know when to act. It's an ongoing education...

Mixed signals on a light volume monday. The Dow was down a few points. Opened higher went lower and meandered about. The advance/declines were highly favorable, over 2 to 1. But the market couldn't get going. Up volume was 3 to 1 over down volume. If good internals can't get this thing going, what will? Higher McClellan Oscillator readings yet no upside in price. I'll have to sit it out for now on the OEX. Gold did not move much today, however the XAU rallied at the close as did NEM. Now I have a dilemma. Was the bounce off the weekly uptrendline it? Meaning once we hit that line there is no way to go but up? Will prices simply take off with no pullback? It is getting overbought but will it stay there? Should I simply buy some calls now? These are the things that make it difficult. This is why it is a most challenging game to play. There are no set answers. There is no exact strategy. How can it be done? Patience and discipline can go a long way to solving these mysteries. On gold as on the OEX, I should sit it out this week. Observe and get ready for a good signal if one comes up. It also would give me time to look at some other possibilities with different stocks and indices. That's what I should do. Time will tell what I actually do...

Sunday afternoon. S&P futures up a bit. Will try to take it easy this week. Maybe get long the OEX if there is a decent sell-off. Will look for gold to hopefully pullback and set up another long position. End of the month and a long weekend coming up. Patience should be the key for this week. No clear signal but the summation index has turned up and the press is sounding bearish. A good reason to look to get long. But I'll try to stay on the sidelines. Options will be pricey with a new cycle beginning. More tomorrow...

Reflections on the last trade. Lucky. Piss poor mechanics. Good call on the entry point. I believe getting long when the XAU falls back to the weekly uptrend line will prove rewarding. But will it fall back that far again? That is the question. Can I improve my trading execution? That is another question. Options have expired and we will now roll over to the June options. It would probably be wise to hold off on anything next week. But who knows. More importantly, I've got to move on and get better. There is plenty of money out there and I think I have some legitimate ideas. But my performance in the heat of trading must change. How to do that will require discipline. It's up to each trader to find it. I'll keep searching...

Expiration friday. The market opened stronger, up around 80 points on the Dow at one point. Only up about 20 now with 20 minutes to go. Gold opened higher and closed up over $6. The XAU is up a couple points and NEM is up too. I sold the NEM calls earlier this morning for a profit of over 120%. Dumb luck. It was a terrible trade. If all the rest of my trades are like that one I won't survive. Should have been out on wednesday with a triple when the signal was there. Horrible trade. How can you make over 100% and call it a bad trade. Easy. Because it was. The mechanics were bullshit. It is better to do the trade properly and lose a little money than it is to screw it up like I just did. That was an extra 2 days of needless stress and work. I probably could have squeezed another 10% to 20% out of the thing today but couldn't do that either. It's the mental pain that is killing me. I know it's about making money but it is also about trading well. If you trade well the money will come. I will say the original premise of bouncing off the weekly XAU uptrendline was correct. I think that there will be more long gold trades to come in the weeks ahead. But they must be executed better than this one. More this weekend.

I have a meeting at my day job so I don't have a lot of time today. Half and hour to go and the market is choppy. Light volume. NEM and the XAU are both down. The NEM options are under water and not moving. The price of NEM is right at the strike price. An up day tomorrow and maybe I can salvage a small loss. A down day and I'm cooked. The mental side of the game takes over when the mistakes are so terrible. It eats away at you. It diminishes your capability for finding other trades. It stifles your ideas. It drains the mental resources and takes away the ability to reason. Mistakes cost you so much more than money. There are no excuses. You must look in the mirror and face yourself.

Crazy day. Cray-zee. Dow up big early, over 100 points. I had put in an order for calls overnight but it wasn't filled so I canceled it. Market hangs around and then starts falling. Ends up the day down 30. I thought about buying some calls when it approached a short-term uptrend line. But I didn't. And it just kept on dropping. Gold was up $7. XAU and NEM up big for the first part of the day. My options on NEM had almost tripled at one point midway through the day. But then they started to drop. And NEM went further down. Like the idiot I am I just sat there lamenting how much they were worth an hour ago. And sat there as they went all the way back to the price I bought them. The agony and the pain. What kind of dope would do that? There are 2 freakin' days left on these things. A decent profit goes up in thin air. How could I be so stupid? Everything was going the trades way and I just let it slip away. They closed with a small gain but did I do the prudent thing and get out? Of course not and now I still have them with 2 days to go. With a reversal on the candlestick staring me in the face. I must be a moron. Really, I need to just get out of this thing, stop torturing my brain and move on. If I can't take a decent profit, when these things are about to expire, then when can I? What an idiot. If there is any kind of upmove tomorrow, I have to bail out. But then again, I said that yesterday...

15 minutes until the close on tuesday. Monday was a down day for the Dow, over 100 points to the downside. Gold was up a couple bucks, the XAU and NEM rallied early but then came way off their highs. The NEM options are under water. That was monday. Today we have a rally on the market, Dow up around 70 points now and at a multi-week downtrend line. If we can get through this line a good rally will follow. And that is the question. The volume today is light. I would like to get some calls. The McClellan Oscillator will be close to passing through the zero line to the upside and that is a buy signal. However that hasn't happened yet. Gold was down around 4 bucks today. Surprisingly the XAU hasn't gone down much and neither has NEM. In fact in the last hour for some reason these things turned around and are now positive. The NEM options are still losers but are getting close to break even. I need to exit this trade. That is reality. However I will give it another day due to the latest rise near the close here. Maybe it will work out after all. It would be lucky for sure if it does. Can the market break through here? That is the major question for a trade into the expiration. Longer term, I'm getting some good signals that this is a nice spot to put longterm money to work. Would love to have the guts to buy some calls here. But I will have to wait it out because the signal isn't exactly clear and the time left is short. Will still have to decide what to do with the NEM calls. It's a tough game and we all new that going in...

Sunday afternoon, S&P futures off fractionally, gold not moving. I need to come up with a gameplan for the week ahead. I suppose the NEM trade should get my full attention. I'm already in it. Monday will be important. NEM is right on the downtrend line that took a few weeks to build. If we can somehow get through it on monday, higher prices and a winning trade will be most likely. If we get turned back then the trade will probably be a loser. My thinking is that interest rates will back of from their recent highs, sending the dollar lower and providing a boost for gold. But time is of the essence, the options expire on friday. I need to be out by the close tuesday if we rally. That's a guess but I need to have it in my mind that time is not on my side here because it isn't. As for the OEX, if it goes higher early in the week I'll look to short it. If it falls early, I'll look for calls. It's a tricky proposition either way. It probably wouldn't hurt to wait until the June option cycle. But we'll see what happens. Probably won't have a lot of time to write here tomorrow as I'm playing golf after the market closes. But first things first, NEM tomorrow...

Market went nowhere yesterday, Dow up 2 points. Volume was light. NEM made a comeback and the options I own are right back where I purchased them. XAU was also up. This trade is tricky with only a week left. My thoughts are that I've got to get out early in the week. NEM is still out of the money and these things could get worthless in a hurry if the price moves down. If I had any brains, I would get the hell out ASAP. However the weekly candlestick chart for NEM now shows a bullish engulfing pattern which should lead to higher prices. Gold itself is still under $380. We'll see what happens. The OEX is another story. Not a clear signal at this point. I'd still like to wait for a lower close with a higher oscillator number. It's options expiration week. You gotta be nimble and quick, not to mention cautious yet willing to take a chance. There will be opportunities to make money but it's gotta be fast. Hopefully I'm up to the challenge. More tomorrow...

Sloppy day on the markets. Down, up, down, really not much to write home about. Dow down around 35, overall market down a little less. Gold down a couple bucks, XAU and NEM both down. The NEM options are now under water. Must decide where to take the loss at this point. Unless tomorrow is a good day for these things, they're losers. No clear signal for the OEX but if it keeps rallying, I'll look for a shorting opportunity next week. Longer term we are getting to the point of a good entry. I threw some cash in my mutual funds this past monday. If we go lower I'll toss in some more. We'll see what tomorrow brings for this NEM trade. Need some positive movement or it's dead.

Incredible turnaround today. 10 minutes to go and we were down over 160 points and now we are positive on the day. Made a new intraday low earlier but the advance/declines were better than recent and the McClellan Oscillator was nowhere near the -364 it was a couple days ago. I suppose that was a short term spot to get long if you were quick enough and had some balls. I was looking for a close of day non-conformation. It's not going to happen. Should rally from here and would be surprised if we didn't. This was a textbook short-covering rally. Incredible. Decline is over. Gold opened higher, NEM rallied but has since fell back. Options right where I bought them. A couple inflation numbers in the next couple days. Price of gold hasn't moved much so far this week. We'll see if that lasts. Don't know if that trade will work. Will be looking for an OEX long trade on some weakness after today. But that was some move. I think that the fact we got so blown out on the indicators and the market was not allowed to drop as usual means that higher prices are ahead for the longer term. It's just a guess as usual. More tomorrow...

Had to bounce and it did. Dow up around 30 points, advance/declines pretty good. When the McClellan Oscillator gets as negative as it was yesterday, -364, its gotta bounce. Readings that low are very rare. But we should have gotten more of a decline in my opinion. NEM bounced a little today, XAU up a point. Options hanging in there for now. CISCO announcing after the bell, could be a catalyst for tomorrow. I'm pressed for time, more tomorrow...

Another down day on heavy volume. But again, not even close to as far down as it could have been. The Anti-crash team at work. New lows expand to over 870. Over 3000 declines again! And the market only down around 125 points on the Dow? The McClellan Oscillator is blown out at -364. Rarely and I do mean rarely, does it ever get this low. And when it does the market is cascading. But this is the world we live in, election year and all. Fed/White House/Treasury propping this thing up. And it will work that way. Anyway we will bounce tomorrow or the next day. With an oscillator reading like that there is no other way. I'd like to get some OEX calls here but I will hopefully wait. Good support for the OEX at 520 and we are at 532. I'll look for the price to get near 520 with a higher McClellan Oscillator reading as a non conformation and get long then. I anticipate that happening within the next 2 weeks before the expiration on the 21st. Gold was a little lower today however the XAU found support here as it should and bounced a couple points. NEM was up around 80 cents and the options I purchased are showing a small profit. Still not sure about this trade. I'm giving it some time though as a decent bounce should occur from these levels. Also the open interest expanded on the calls I bought and that always seems to be a good sign. Or not. So I'll look for a bounce in the Dow here soon and keep an eye on the NEM trade.

Sunday eve. S&P futures up a bit, gold down a couple bucks. Don't think the gold trade will work. Now a little more on fridays market action. The Dow should have been much lower. It was manipulated. How would I know? Because I've been a student of the markets for almost 2 decades. I see things that don't add up and search for reasons. I have heard elsewhere of an anti-crash committee but did not believe it was true. But it is. Fridays advance/decline action was the worst in a long time. Over 3000 declines. This never happens. New lows expanded to over 700. The McClellan Oscillator reached minus 275 and the Summation index blew through the zero line. And only down 125 points on the Dow? Bullshit. The trin indicator was actually .61. On a day like that it easily should have been 2 or more. A lot more. The powers that be simply bought the big caps that weigh heavily on the Dow and S&P 500 to keep it propped up. I can't claim to say that I know exactly where this comes from because I am simply a regular person with no inside contacts. But it is government and/or industry related. The markets aren't fair and never will be but you take that into consideration when you play the game. But fridays manipulation was blatant. Only to those who pay attention mind you. And that group is pretty small. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Just a quick note today. I entered a gold trade. The XAU got hammered again yesterday. It is now around 78. I bought some May NEM calls. I got them near the low of the day. There is strong support for the XAU at 76-78. Gold itself is below $380 at around $378. If this is going to work it's going to work here or not at all. NEM is around $35.40. I've got the 37.5's. Sometimes when you enter a trade you think this is really going to work. Other times you enter and you think that you have made a mistake. This trade already feels like a mistake to me. Not a lot of money involved, so it won't be so painful. But I don't know, I've just got a bad feeling about this one. But who knows? Maybe that's good. The technicals are blown out. The stock market is another matter. I will explain more tomorrow. However yesterday was a classic example of the Fed/White House/Treasury/Whoever Anti-Crash Team at work. More tomorrow...

Almost the close on a down day. Dow off around 70 points. Was down around 130 at one point. Advance/declines were horrible. Gold weak. Will get long gold tomorrow if it continues to drop. Employment number tomorrow. We are at the crossroads. Either it holds up here or it will unravel. Summation index at the zero line. Would have liked to have the guts to buy calls today. But just couldn't do it. Will do a long gold trade here soon though. Tomorrow should be interesting. It is really out of character for me not to take on a trade here. Profit opportunities are there. But without a clear signal, I'm on the sidelines. Maybe my discipline is getting better. Maybe I'm just too dumb or scared to do anything. Whatever the case, a trade is coming soon. Or not...

Summer doldrums in May. No movement to speak of. Dow off 6 points. Overall advance/declines slightly positive. Waiting for friday I guess. And even then it may not do anything. XAU down and I hope it goes lower. Would love to have the guts to buy calls in both the OEX and XAU here. But there is no good signal. In fact we are moving to where a short play may possibly be in order for the market. Summation index still pointing down and if we drop here it will be big. I've got to somehow have the discipline to stay out and wait for a decent signal. It ain't easy.

About 25 minutes to go. The Fed left rates unchanged. The Dow rallied about 60 points. But we've turned around and are now down 20. Tricky call here. I'm still on the sidelines. And it sucks. For gold has rallied big today. XAU up over 4 points at one time, still up 3 1/2. NEM up over a buck and a half. Profit opportunity missed. It was there. I was there. But I didn't do anything. Which is worse, losing money or missing opportunity? Some would say losing money is worse. That could be true. But you lose and you move on. Missing an opportunity lingers. It eats away at your mental capital. If gold retreats from here back to the level it started out today, I'll get long. No questions asked. It still is blown out, just not as much. But if it just rallies straight up from here, there will be no chance to profit on the longside. Now the Dow is another story. Are OEX calls still in order? Maybe. The employment number is friday. That will set the real tone, as opposed to the Fed. But how will it be interpreted? And what does the market do from now until then? I don't have a clear signal. Summation index is still pointing down but it is improving. And approaching the all important zero line. Nobody said it would be easy. But you can't make any money if you're not at the table, inspiring words from a Trader Vic or perhaps a poker player. I'm still thinking long side here...

Dow up 88 points. Volume decent. It had to bounce, really. Now the question is was it just a bounce or is the decline over? I wish I knew. I want to say it's over. I want to get long weakness tomorrow. I want to but will I? It is a tough game to play. The Fed will announce its policy and I'll take it from there I guess. It will take some guts to get long ahead of that statement but that may be the only way. Gold went nowhere and I will get long there on any weakness this week. It's blown out to the downside. I would like a position before fridays employment report. Now what to do about the OEX? Buy calls? Another twist to the saga is that we still have 3 weeks left on the May options. Plenty of time for things to change more than once. What's the least likeliest scenario? The market going to new recovery highs? Then that's what will happen to screw the most players. Yeah, I wish I could see that far. But this game isn't made for wishing. I'll wait for the Fed news and go off of that. I believe an uptrend is at hand. Must find a way to make money...

I suppose in keeping with this weekends theme, post time is 6:30 PST tomorrow. Sunday afternoon and a gameplan for the upcoming week is in order. The market is oversold. It declined on heavy volume last week. The summation index is pointing down and nearing the zero line. That is important. The market tends to fall apart at the zero line. Or not. And therein lies the problem. Markets usually remain overbought for some time. That has been my experience. But they don't remain oversold for too long. And we are oversold now. We will stay there if this thing starts to unravel. I want to get long. I want to buy some calls. There is some support right where we are now. Other support a little lower. The Fed meets on tuesday. The employment report is on friday. Catalysts to be sure. But for what? I'd like to have the discipline to wait for the Fed to get out of the way. There is a big negative on one of my indicators that needs to be replaced on tuesday. Most likely by another negative. If that's the case, I'll get long on wednesday. But who knows? I think we're at a crossroads and this week will be the determining factor. If we continue down, it will be substantial. If not maybe we can turn here and head up to the top of the trading range. I have been looking at gold. Gold is blown out on the dailies and weeklies. It is due to bounce. There is money to be made. The XAU is around 80 and major support comes in at 78-76. I want to get long NEM as a proxy for gold. Perhaps, again, after the Fed meeting. It is hard to say. NEM doesn't look like it has as much support here as the XAU. But the XAU option prices are overdone. Too much volatility has been priced into them. We shall see. So it should be a busy week, with some type of trade taking place. More after the close tomorrow. I'm hoping for a light volume nothing day as we wait for Big Al and his pals...