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Monday, February 10, 2020

The Dow started off the week with a gain of 174 points on average volume.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as we started lower and closed higher.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market was looking at good gains for the day and then shot higher in the final half hour.  My SPY February puts are now big losers.  The stop loss order should not have been canceled.  Unless we get some kind of sharp turnaround lower, this trade will be another mismanaged loser.  We've got the Fed speaking on Wednesday but that will most likely be pretty dovish with the effects of the China virus not completely known as of yet.  New all time highs for some of the major stock indices as well.  It appears we've had all of the pause that we're going to get near term.  With only eight days to go in the February option cycle, it's conceivable that things will continue to run up into expiration.  GE was up a few cents but the volume was light.  Gold added another five bucks and the US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is right at its 200 day moving average.  Another day like today will send us through.  With plenty of stock indexes hitting new all time highs and now resistance above us it's easy to make the case for higher prices.  I should probably just take the loss I have and move on.  Perhaps I'll wait for the Fed.  Either way it's a rough start to the trading year for me.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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