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Thursday, February 20, 2020

The day started out quiet but around an hour or so after the open things fell apart.  The Dow was off almost 400 points during the session but closed off 128 on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Hard to figure that.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two sessions and today qualifies for that.  China virus fear was the reason given for the decline but like all the other recent drops, buyers stepped in.  The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains overbought.  GE was down almost a dime on lighter volume.  Gold continues higher as the futures added another $9.  The US dollar continued higher as well.  The gold shares finished little changed on better than average volume.  They are most likely due for a rest.  I did cancel my open order for the GDX March calls.  We're overbought on the gold shares on a short term basis but I may try this idea again next week if we see some near term weakness.  Any good news on the China virus will probably cause gold to tumble.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a pretty good spike early on but finished well off of its beat level.  The short term technical indicators here have turned up but it's still oversold.  It did close back above the 200 day moving average though.  Option expiration Friday tomorrow so we'll have to see how that plays into things.  I will probably remain on the sidelines before the weekend.  It looks like we are in a headline driven environment again for the time being.  The US dollar is finding money flow into it but the usual haven of the Japanese yen is not happening this time around.  Gold and the yen usually move in tandem so I don't know how much longer the gold rally can last.  The stock market is overdue for some type of sustained downside but as long as any selling is met with buyers we won't see any decline that will last.  The trend remains up until proven otherwise.  Asia was generally higher with Europe down in last nights trading action.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  

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