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Tuesday, February 04, 2020

The Dow soared 407 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is barely moving lower now and trying to turn around.  Could the decline be over?  It very well may be.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today as the leadership is coming from the small stock indexes with the exception of the Russell 2000.  I am not sure why the market has turned around here.  My indicators called for more of a decline.  So we'll have to wait and see.  I did have an overnight order in for the SPY February puts and it got filled in the morning.  It is already showing a loss.  If it gets stopped out I may move to a higher strike price.  Or I may just move to the sidelines.  GE was up 1/3 but the volume was lighter.  Gold sold off today as the futures lost over twenty dollars.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume picked up to the downside.  My GDX February call trade got stopped out for a 50% loss.  The up trend line from December for GDX got broken today.  It is the logical place and time to exit that trade.  This was a winning trade that again turned into a loser.  That isn't the scenario for success.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically I'm still under the weather.  I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps my mind isn't up to the task here due to the flu.  Perhaps sitting out for a while is the better course of action.  I am getting better though.  The VIX had a gap lower today but does remain above its 200 day moving average.  The market has gotten very bullish in a hurry here.  I'm not sure what that means.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P still have plenty of room to move higher.  So it could be that the decline of the past week or so is finished.  We'll probably know by the end of the week.  We'll have the state of the union address tonight followed by the impeachment vote tomorrow.  I mention these things only for what effect that they might have on market movement.  Owning the puts now, I can only hope that it is a sell the news event.  However hope is not a viable trading strategy.  Europe and  Asia were both higher as the China virus scare may have run its course.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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