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Friday, February 28, 2020

Another day and another downer for the Dow as it lost 357 points on insane volume once again.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The McClellan oscillator is just about as low as it ever goes, now in the -400 range.  A bounce is coming and it may have begun today.  The NASDAQ actually finished with a fractional gain if you can believe that.  Very oversold for stocks any way you look at it and it has been that way for a few days now.  I may be buying any weakness on Monday morning.  Just a bounce mind you.  There's no new rally in the making with all the China virus uncertainty.  GE was actually up 3/4 on very heavy volume.  That could be the canary in the coal mine for the bulls here.  Or a fake out, we'll know in due time.  But I'm believing the former since this decline has had a panic and now plenty of margin call selling.  Gold got clobbered today, the futures were off over sixty bucks.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU shed 5 2/3, while GDX lost almost 2 points.  Volume was huge here again.  My GDX March calls remain under water but I expect a rally in the beginning of next week so perhaps I can get out at break even or better.  In fact I did try to purchase some more GDX March calls at a closer to the money strike price but my order wasn't filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX almost touched the 50 level today.  That alone tells you that we are in rare territory.  It also strengthens my view that the decline is now due to take a breather.  That doesn't necessarily mean that it's over but it does mean that a snap back rally is about to take place.  Option premiums are very expensive though.  However if we get a chance on Monday morning to purchase some SPY calls, I think that will be the proper short term move.  Of course we have to get through the weekend headlines whatever they may be.  Just be clear on this, extremely oversold, a panic move lower yesterday and today the market didn't completely collapse again.  The volume was off the charts today so somebody was stepping in to break the fall.  That's my view of things going on in the market at the moment.  Plenty and I mean plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Opportunity is out there in my mind.  Europe and Asia got crushed in overnight trading to end the week.  We'll have to see how they do before the US market opens on Monday morning.  Interesting times.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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