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Friday, February 07, 2020

Some selling to end the week as the Dow fell 277 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index was trying to turn back up but is now slightly moving lower.  The jobs report was better than expected but the market was down from the open.  We bounced around with a lower bias the rest of the session.  Fear from the China virus is starting to creep back into the market.  I'm still holding my SPY February puts and they are still showing a loss.  They are now back above my stop loss price and that's a plus.  I still see some more downside for Monday but after that it isn't as clear.  We are still short term overbought on the indicators for the S&P, even with todays drop.  The overall market did fare better than the Dow today.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold rose almost five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was up yet again.  The XAU was down 2, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  Dropping gold share prices with a rise in gold isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling just slightly tired, almost done with the flu hopefully.  The VIX closed back above its 200 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here are trying to turn back up.  If that occurs we'll see some more downside next week.  However I must admit that the NASDAQ is really holding up rather well here and we won't get a substantial decline unless the over the counter market begins to falter.  We will also have to see the summation index start to drop again for a decline to gather steam.  There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 on the daily chart.  I am thinking that we'll head lower on Monday according to my work but anything can happen over the weekend.  The powerful up move that we saw this week after the previous decline cannot be counted out.  So there will be plenty to ponder when going over the charts this weekend.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

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