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Monday, February 24, 2020

The game changed today as the Dow crashed 1032 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Fear of the China virus overtook all other factors today.  Why it took so long is just one question.  The longer term up trend line for the S&P 500 at 3250 was broken.  Where we close this week will tell a  lot about where we are going.  A close below 3250 on the S&P 500 would imply that 3000 is the stopping point.  We should go lower from here though because the short term technical indicators haven't gotten oversold yet.  The NASDAQ got killed as well but it is still above the uptrend line that began in December of 2018.  We had huge gaps lower to start the day and it looks like a full fledged decline has begun.  10% lower would take us to 3053 on the S&P.  My next trading idea here is to wait for the snap back that will appear out of nowhere and then try the SPY March puts.  That is what usually happens in these instances.  There will be a huge rally for a day or so and then the decline continues and takes out the previous low.  So I'll wait for that and if it doesn't occur I'll think of something else.  GE lost over 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold continued to shine as the futures gained $16.  It did close far below the high for the session though.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very heavy volume.  Short term overbought now for the gold shares but the break out here is for real in my opinion.  My strategy here is to wait for a pull back as one should materialize when the stock market stabilizes.  At that point I'll try the GDX March calls since I believe that we'll make another run to the highs set today.  Can we just continue higher from here for the gold shares?  Yes, but I do think a pause is the next logical assumption.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX went ballistic today and closed above the 25 level.  We're already short term overbought here.  Yes it could go higher tomorrow but I would expect a reversal at some point this week.  Make no mistake here though, rallies are not going to last as fear is the overriding concern for now.  As more negative news comes out about the China virus it will simply feed on itself.  Although the ideal time to own the SPY puts has come and gone, there will still be opportunities to make money on the downside in my humble opinion.  But you'll have to pay attention and be up for the game.  Europe and Asia were lower to the extreme as well as panic seemed to take a hold of the worldwide stock markets today.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

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