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Wednesday, February 26, 2020

The market took a rest today compared with the beginning of this week.  The Dow fell 123 points and the volume continues to be very heavy.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Still no break from the China virus fears as its effects are yet to be fully known.  It is spreading but hasn't really had an impact in the US.  If that does occur then we'll be heading even lower.  The NASDAQ had a slight gain today so maybe there's some near term hope for the bulls.  I'm still waiting for a snap back to try the SPY puts or a run down to 3000 on the S&P 500 to try the SPY calls.  Short term oversold now any way you look at it.  There is plenty of time in the March option cycle since it just began.  GE lost another 1/3 and the volume remains heavy here.  Gold only rose a buck or so today and finished well off of the highs.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  I do still have an open order for the GDX March calls out there.  However the weekly charts for the gold shares and gold would look pretty negative if we were to close where we are today.  Bearish cloud candlestick patterns would be in place.  So I may have to rethink this idea tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is quite overbought and is pointing towards some kind of short term rally here soon.  Either that or we're going to get to 3000 on the S&P sooner rather than later.  I've got an idea of what to do here so I'll simply have to see what the market says and go from there.  Of course we're now at an extreme level of headline risk but that cannot be avoided at the moment.  So we'll watch and wait for now.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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