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Thursday, February 27, 2020

Panic on Wall Street as the Dow dropped 1191 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is cascading lower.  The China virus fear has reached a feverous pitch.  The S&P 500 has reached the 3000 level and breached it.  This is the logical spot to try some SPY March calls.  However there is nothing logical about what we are witnessing today.  I did place an open order for some SPY March calls but canceled it.  We are at oversold extremes right now.  However this week is acting like the week following the opening after 9/11.  So we've probably got further down to go.  I'm sure that the bounce will be incredible as well.  I just don't know from what level it will start.  I still might take a shot at it though.  GE fell over 1/2 and the volume remains extremely heavy there.  Gold was up only a buck again and finished off of its highs for the day.  The US dollar was lower.  The gold shares got clocked, with the XAU down 7 1/2 and GDX losing 1 3/4.  Volume was extremely heavy here as well.  Everything is being sold regardless of worth at the moment as I'm sure there are plenty of margin calls that must be met.  I did change my open order for the GDX March calls to a lower strike price and it did get filled in todays bloodbath.  Yes it is showing a loss but at least there's three weeks to go here and perhaps the gold shares will snap back as well.  However the daily chart now looks ugly and we're not even oversold on a short term basis yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX soared to over 39 today so we are in not familiar territory on this indicator.  It will not stay this high for long but who knows in this pandemic fear.  It really is impossible now to try and call the bottom bounce point.  The market has already gone into an irrational place.  What if the China virus doesn't have a big effect on the US?  If that's the case then we'll be seeing some 1000 point up days I can assure you.  But we don't know exactly what's going to happen and the market always fears the unknown.  To me it has already been blown out of downside proportion but that's just my guess on things.  On a technical basis we're way oversold and staying that way, hence the waterfall decline.  I should probably not try and be a hero and just stay on the sidelines until things settle themselves out.  You won't make any money that way.  But you won't lose any either.  I'll continue to think it over tonight.  I'll hang on to the GDX call trade for now.  Europe and Asia were lower last night and I'll assume that they'll get crushed again tonight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

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