A quiet day turned into a last day of the year two hour rally and the Dow finished the year at a new record high. The most watched index ended 2020 with a gain of 197 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower but in a sideways range. The Dow and S&P 500 closed at all time highs. The trading day was drifting in a sideways channel before the buyers piled in ahead of the new year. Front running the expected rally to begin 2021 I assume. Nothing on the news front to account for the gain. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. GE was up almost a dime and the volume was light. Gold was up a few bucks on the February contract and the US dollar was higher as well. The gold shares dropped, with the XAU off almost 3 points and GDX down 1/2. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares down is bearish. I do still have my open order for the GDX January calls out there. Once again I'll be considering canceling this order over the long holiday weekend. The short term techncial indicators for GDX are mid-range so things could go either way. Once again the 50 day moving average held as resistance. I'll think it over in the next three days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished almost unchanged today and that doesn't match the decent gain in stocks that we saw. Still short term oversold here. I do expect stocks to rally on Monday morning as they often do to begin the new year. The Santa Claus rally has been in full swing this year and it has two trading days left. I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with some type of game plan for the final two weeks in the January option cycle. It's the end of the year and my trading account finished with a gain of 30% for the year. There were a couple of good trades during the year but many more that were poorly mismanaged. That will be something to work on in 2021. There's plenty of money to be made in the game, you just have to be good enough to do it. Happy New Year to everyone and we'll be back at it on Monday. Enjoy the long weekend.

Choppy, lackluster trading marked the day as the Dow gained 73 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trending in a sideways channel. Not much to write about todays market inaction. Just waiting for the new year to begin. I'd expect to see some more money flows beginning on Monday. Another holiday shortened week with the markets closed on Friday. Still short term overbought on the S&P 500 but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was very light. Gold found a bid today on a weaker US dollar. The precious metal futures rose almost $14. The XAU climbed 4 2/3, while GDX added over 3/4. Volume was light but it is a holiday week. My open order for the GDX January calls was never filled but it's still out there. This now looks like another trade that was missed. The short term technical indicators for GDX have turned up. I'm not sure if this is something that I want to chase or not. GDX is right up against its 50 day moving average which has turned it back before in recent trading. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold. I'm not exactly sure what's next for the SPY. The Bollinger bands here and on some of the other major stock indices have contracted to the point that something is about to happen. The question is in which direction? You can make a case for either way. There's no overhead resistance and there should be plenty of money flowing at the beginning of next year. So it's pretty easy to make the bullish case. However sentiment is extremely positive and has no place to go but lower. I don't have any solid technical signals at the moment either way. There's still plenty of time in the January option cycle for a trade though. We'll let this holiday week complete itself and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll finish the week and 2020 trading tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 68 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower but remains in a sideways channel. Light and listless trading was the story of today. Only a couple of trading days left in the year. The market didn't expand on its good gains from Monday. The trend remains up though for now. GE was off a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on light volume. My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there. I am however seeing a lot of press about how gold is going to have a great year again in 2021. That usually means that it is about to head lower. I'll be keeping a close watch. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. Still oversold here. Really just waiting for the year to end at this point. Many traders are away from their desks and what had to be done for this year is over. So we will watch and wait. The underlying themes of the pandemic virus, vaccines and presidential transition remain. For the most part Europe and Asia were up overnight. We'll keep an eye on whatever develops overnight.

The stimulus deal has been signed and the market rallied. The Dow gained 204 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to make up its mind here on which way to go. The overall market was slightly better than the Dow. We had new all time highs for the Dow, NASDAQ and the S&P 500. No overhead resistance and the Santa Claus rally is in full swing. One less trading day this week. Volume should be lighter than usual with players taking an extended holiday. No SPY trades on tap at the moment but I'm looking both ways. GE was basically flat on light volume. Gold had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower. The futures dropped six bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. One day downside reversals in the gold shares as well. The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. My open order is still out there for the GDX January calls but I'll again have to reconsider this idea tonight. The price action today was pretty bearish with traders selling on the signing of the stimulus. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually up a touch today on a rally for stocks. That doesn't fit and could lead to a near term drop. Oversold on the VIX but not terribly so. I still think that stocks could just rally into the January expiration as there isn't anything in the way of higher prices right now. Seasonality is favorable and the S&P 500 is not completely overbought yet. We'll keep an eye on things as they develop and look for a decent SPY trade going forward. Europe and Asia were generally higher to begin the shortened trading week. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow.

A half day of trading and the Dow gained 70 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. They really should just consider taking the whole day off before Christmas. GE lost about twenty cents on teh same extremely light volume. Gold was up five bucks and the US dollar was little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on minimal volume. I've left my open order for the GDX January calls out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is heading back to oversold. We'll see if it can get through the 20 level this time around. If it does that will mean a decent rally in stocks. Hasn't happened yet. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Another short week next week. We'll see how many traders make it in. The Santa Claus rally showed up on cue today. Will it continue for next week? Merry Christmas to everyone and enjoy the long weekend.

Another mixed session as the Dow gained 114 points on light volume. The advance/declines were a little better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The market had pretty nice gains for most of the day but dropped quickly in the final 15 minutes. The NASDAQ posted a loss. It does feel like holiday mode though as volume is slowing down. A half day of trading tomorrow and it's on to a long holiday weekend. The background is basically the same with regards to the pandemic virus. There was some chatter about the president not signing the recently passed stimulus bill but I sincerely doubt that. Brexit is just about finished. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Gold was up a dozen on the February futures. The US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up almost 2 /3. Volume was light. I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did come up off of the lower levels early in the day. This indicator still looks like it could go either way. The market is entering a positive seasonal period now and I would expect things to trend upwards from here. I don't expect some sort of huge move higher but more of a gradual move forward barring any unforeseen news out of the blue. The premiums on the SPY January calls remain elevated. I'm still leaning towards the GDX call trade but may have to adjust my order in the beginning of next week. We'll see. Europe and Asia were higher. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 200 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index has started to roll over. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 closing at new all time highs. So even though the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over, it's hard to be too negative about things going forward. We're also on the cusp of the Santa Claus rally period which usually provides a lift for stocks. I'm still looking at the SPY January calls but the premiums are pricey. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume. Gold fell $15 on the February futures contract. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 4 3/4, while GDX shed a little over a point. Volume picked up to the downside and that isn't a good sign for the bulls. The technical indicators for GDX have rolled over as well. The gold shares were relatively weaker compared to the precious metal itself and that is another negative. I did place another open order for some GDX January calls. Another day like today may get it filled. I'll have to recheck the thinking on this trade because the gold shares are not acting in a positive manner at the moment. The rally of last week looks like it was simply an options expiration ploy. Also Barrick Gold (GOLD) looks to be on the verge of a breakdown from the latest support level. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today which fits with the small stocks but not the large caps. The short term indicators here are now mid-range as things could go one way or the other. Tomorrow is the last full trading day for the week. It should be the final clean up in trading accounts for this year. We'll see if the short trading day on Thursday starts the Santa Claus rally. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.

Quite a ride today as the Dow was off over 400 points early on but had a one day reversal to the upside and finished with a slight gain of 37 points on heavy volume. So much for being a slow holiday week. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The stimulus deal is now done and just waiting on the vote. The market sold off early as the stimulus was already priced in. The pandemic virus fears are back in front of the news with a new strain in Europe. The vaccine rollout is bumpy but it will take months for that to be effective. It is also already priced in to the market. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract which implies a decent price move on the way. I thought that traders would be taking some time off but I suppose I was wrong on that. GE lost a few cents and the volume was average. Gold bounced around as well today. It was up over the $1900 level overnight but then backed off and lost $7 on the February futures. The US dollar soared early but only finished with a slight gain. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on pretty light volume. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls but canceled it during the trading session. The price action in gold today wasn't exactly positive. We are also still overbought in the short term for GDX. I do still like this idea though and may place another order in the near future. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was positve today and had a huge spike up to its 200 day moving average before falling back. I'm not sure what that all means but the short term indicators are turning back up. That would suggest that there's more selling to come. But the comeback in stocks today was impressive as we were really on the ropes early. We'll have to see how the rest of this week shapes up. For now, I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY but I am looking at the January calls. Europe and Asia were lower. We'll see how they react to the US comeback tonight.

Expiration gyrations as the Dow fell 124 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow was down over 250 points until the final half hour which saw a brief but fast rally. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are atarting to roll over but haven't broken down just yet. I expect a slow holiday week on tap but I could be wrong. GE was off almost a dime and volume remains light. Gold was off around $5 and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. GDX has stalled at its 50 day moving average. I'll be looking at the GDX January calls next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite the drop in prices. It finished well off of its highs for the session. Not exactly sure what that means. The indicators here look like they want to move back up, which would imply some selling to come. We'll see. Although I'd like to put on a trade here soon, the prudent course of action might be to let next week pass. It is the beginning of the January option cycle and the premiums will be high. It is a holiday week as well and that means less players in the game. I'll go over the charts this weekend and decide what to do hopefully. Perhaps the stimulus package will be done by the open Monday. We'll see if it is a sell the news event. Europe and Asia were generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Right on cue with higher prices as the Dow gained 147 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. New all time highs for many of the major stock indices. Expiration Friday tomorrow and the positive bias for the week has been evident. The stimulus deal has been promised by the end of the weekend. That might be the final push up or perhaps a reason to sell. What more good news is to come? Short term overbought for the S&P 500 but there is no overhead resistance. We'll let tomorrow go by and perhaps next week as well since the market will be in holiday mode. GE was off a few cents and the volume was very light. Gold shot up thirty bucks and is almsot back to $1900. The US dollar was lower and has dropped through the 90 level. The XAU climbed 5 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was good. Getting short term overbought for the gold shares but the longer term picture is now positive. I'll be looking to chase this move higher with the GDX January calls if we see some pullback in the coming sessions. I did cancel my open order for the GDX calls now as it will not get filled at my asking price. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for missing both the SPY December calls and the GDX trades. My thinking is that the consecutive losing trades that I had in November hindered me from trying anything in December. That is why the mental capital is always more important than anything monetary. Losing trades must be forgotten quickly but it is always easier said than done. Plenty of missed opportunities for me here lately but that will have to be put aside. The VIX was lower and the short term technical indicators have rolled over. It's pointing to the rally continuing. There's really nothing in the way of higher prices. Bullish sentiment is off the charts though and that is usually a sign of at least some sort of pause. The other normally reliable indicator that is flashing a sell signal appears to not be working this time around. It's been about a month and still no decline in stocks. The 75% accuracy rate did not come through this time around or so it seems. I'm still keeping an eye on it though. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how the December expiration goes tomorrow.

We got the Fed out of the way as the Dow fell 44 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. The overall market fared better than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 sporting gains. We had the usual hanging around before the Fed and then a move higher. The market did drop slightly into the close. No surprises from the Fed as it was business as usual. Retail sales did come in a bit light. The S&P 500 remians slightly overbought on a short term basis. Just a couple of trading days left in the week and I don't expect much except for most likely new all time highs. We'll see how things shake out before the December option expiration. GE was off over 1/8 but the volume was pretty light. Gold rallied after the Fed chairman spoke and the futures gained $10. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was on the light side. I still have the open order out there for the GDX January calls but it appears that trade was missed. I'll probably cancel the order before the end of the week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits the overall market rise. The short term indicators here are now mixed with no good signal one way or the other. The market is still waiting on some kind of stimulus package before Christmas. That should provide some more upside if it ever comes to pass. The pandemic virus background remains along with the vaccine rollout. Next week is a holiday affair. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight anticipating the Fed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 338 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving back up. Gains across the board as all the major stock indices were higher. Positive expiration bias in effect. No new news to speak of but the market is probably discounting a stimlus deal getting done sooner rather than later. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll probably see new all time highs before the week is out. Buying the weakness yesterday was the proper play. We'll get retail sales and the Fed tomorrow. All signs now point to higher near term prices. GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume. Gold rallied over $25 on the futures. The US dollar continued lower. The XAU was up 4 7/8, while GDX gained 1 1/8. Volume was just OK. My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there. However if today is the beginning of an extended rally for gold, the order won't get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today and the short term indicators are rolling over. This implies a rally for stocks that started today. I suppose we'll see how high things can go this week. Yesterdays downside reversal scared me out of trying the SPY December calls. We did not see any downside follow through early this morning to try the calls as we were up from the start. Had I been nimble enought this morning I might have been able to purchase some calls. But it was not to be. Now with three days remaining in the December option cycle I'll just sit it out. I do believe that we'll be higher by the close on Friday. Gold and silver both had positive sessions today. We'll see if they follow throough tomorrow. All eyes and ears will be on the Fed. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

One day reversals seem to be the new norm as the Dow opened higher and closed lower again. The most watched index dropped 185 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to turn around or at least stall. I was all set to buy some SPY December calls on weakness but we had a gap higher at the open. After the first hour the market started to deteriorate and kept moving lower for the rest of the session. The TRAN had a very negative day and perhaps will be leading us lower here. But the NASDAQ posted a gain on the day and the Russell 2000 had a slight gain. I'm still thinking about those SPY calls for the last week in the December option cycle if we're lower again tomorrow. I am getting a short term buy signal on one of the technical indicators I follow. The risk is pretty high though. We do have the Fed announcement on Wednesday to get through along with retail sales. GE lost 1/3 on lighter volume. The short term indicators are now rolling over and GE deserves to take a break. Gold was off a dozen on the February futures and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. I still have the open order out there for the GDX January calls again. Another day like today will probably get it filled. I'm not so sure about this idea anymore because gold hasn't shown any ability lately to have a sustained rally. We are approaching previous technical levels that have provided for at least a bounce though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and broke through its upper Bollinger band. It is almost short term overbought as well. This is another reason to perhaps get long on weakness tomorrow despie the short time remaining on the December options. Could things just fall apart here? I don't think so but the market goes where it wants to. I can't imagine the Fed on Wednesday upsetting the apple cart but you never know. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over so I suppose we can't rule anything out. Staying on the sidelines is choice to be made as well. We'll see how the futures trade overnight and take it from there. Still no stimulus deal and the Brexit saga drags on. The vaccine rollout has begun in the US but the pandemic virus remains. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight with the exception of China and Hong Kong. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.

Mixed messages continue as the Dow rose 47 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was waeker than the Dow but it was a pretty uneventful session. We were lower form the start and spent the day making up ground. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over some more but remain overbought. We are almost at a buy signal for one fo the short term indicators that I follow. I'm thinking of perhaps trying the SPY December calls for options expiration week. Buying on any weakness on Monday morning would be the plan. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume. Gold futures and the US dollar were both up slightly. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX had a fractional loss. Volume was pretty light. I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a pop higher today and then backed off. It isn't completely overbought as of yet but todays action could have signaled that the recent market weakness is done. That's how I'm interpreting it right now. It's another reason to potentially try the SPY December calls next week. I'll have to go over everything again this weekend but that is the idea for now. We should get some decent market movement next week. We've got retail sales data coming out and the Fed to deal with. It's also the last full trading week before the holiday week of Christmas. I would expect things to start slowing down then. I'll go over the charts this weekend and then decide what to do. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another mixed bag today as the Dow fell 69 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ was the relative leader today after being the laggard yesterday. The Russell 2000 had a good session as the small stocks are leading the way. There was no downside follow through for the small stocks and that's a plus. We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices. The roll over of the technical indicators for some of the indexes did not continue today. The trend still remains up until proven otherwise. GE was off a few cents and the volume was good. Gold finished little changed and the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I did place an overnight order for some GDX January calls. It was not filled and will take some more decline to get triggered. I'll consider canceling it before the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators here are still pointing up. Option expiration week is almost upon us and we'll look for the usual positive bias. I'll be looking for new all time highs again. The bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the S&P 500 daily chart has yet to manifest itself. It would need to do so in a hurry to be valid. I don't have any SPY trades in mind for now. I haven't gotten a clear short term technical signal one way or the other here. The longer term sell signal remains out there from one of the reliable indicators. Unfortunately the timing there can be a month early. It's already been a couple of weeks since triggered so perhaps it isn't going to work this time around. Time will tell. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Today was the opposite of yesterday as we had a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow. It lost 105 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even though. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way down. A very dark candlestick has appeared on the NASDAQ daily chart, with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the S&P 500 daily after todays price action. The short term technical indicators for these two indices have now turned lower. We'll have to see if this is the beginning of the decline that I'm looking for or just a one day event. The NASDAQ leading the way lower is not a positive. GE just keeps climbing as it gained 3/8 on very good volume. Overbought to the extreme here though. Gold took a few steps back as the futures dropped over thirty bucks. The US dollar was barely higher. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX shed almost a point. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. The gold shares did fare better than gold itself relatively speaking. I'm again considering the GDX January calls and may place an order in overnight. We are not oversold on the daily technical indicators yet, so patience may be the best plan for now. GDX closed back below its 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced off of the 20 level today and finished higher. The technical indicators here are now pointing up and have plenty of room to go. That would fit in with a more than one day decline for the market if they continue higher. There's still seven days to go in the December option cycle but it appears today was the day to try the SPY December puts. We'll see about that as we move forward. The background remains the same regarding the pandemic virus, vaccine rollout, stimulus talks and Brexit in the background. There was some negative chatter about Facebook today. Today was a market downer so we'll see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow. That would give us a better idea about what lies ahead. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We had another one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. It gained 104 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The short term overbought condition continues as well. But no matter. New all time highs were registered in most of the major stock indices, with the Russell 2000 leading the way. Plenty of liquidity still around and no end in sight for the rally. Yes, I'm looking at the SPY December puts but have yet to see a decent short term sell signal. Fundamentally nothing has changed as there is no stimulus deal and the pandemic virus remains. More restrctions across the country but it hasn't affected the stock market yet. The beat goes on. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up $8 on the February futures contract as the US dollar had another slight gain. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still above the 20 level. The short term technical indicators here have started to roll back over. If that continues it implies more upside in the near term. There's really nothing in the way of higher prices at the moment. Sentiment extremes continue but that could last for a while and it already has. No overhead resitance for the stock indexes. We're in a favorable seasonal time period. One of the technical indicators that I follow is flashing a sell signal but the timing there could be as much as a month early. It is pretty reliable though so that is why I would not chase the upside here. That doesn't mean that we won't continue to go higher. However when the decline does occur it should be legitimate. Meaning at least 5% or more. We'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 148 points on the continued heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues up. The NASDAQ was up on the session and the Russell 2000 eeked out a gain. The major stock averages are still short term overbought and still hugging the upper Bollinger band. This could go on for a few more days but we're overdue for some kind of pullback in my humble opinion. I'm still waiting for at least some kind of sell signal before trying the SPY December puts. There remains no overhead resistance for stocks and where the top is for this rally nobody really knows. The stimulus deal is still up in the air and the pandemic virus remains. The vaccine roll out is due before the end of the month hopefully. Nine days to go in the December option cycle. GE was off two cents after being higher for much of the day. Overdue for a rest here as well. Gold found a bid to begin the week, with the futures up over $25. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX added almost 1 1/4. Volume was a bit better than it has been lately. I did place an open order for the GDX December calls over the weekend but the gold shares took off from the start. It's safe to say that I've missed this move up in the gold shares but I'm again looking out to January if we get any kind of move lower in the next couple of weeks. GDX isn't short term overbought yet but I don't really want to chase it after todays nice move up. The medium term technical picture for GDX is still oversold so there is plenty of room for it to go higher going forward. If the overall market has some sort of decline it will probably take the gold shares with it and that would be the opportunity that we're looking for. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with the big cap decline. The short term indicators have moved up here but not with any conviction. That may indicate that the decline that I'm hoping for is more far off than I'd like. We're still looking at the 20 level as the near term resistance for the VIX. If we could some how make it through there it could be off to the races for stocks. Hasn't happened yet. I'd like to put on some kind of trade before the December expiration but remaining patient for now. Not a lot of economic data out this week. Brexit talks are in the background here in the US. Europe and Asia were generally lower to start the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report came in weaker than expected but the market didn't mind. The Dow gained 248 points on the continued heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. No overhead resistance for stocks as the major indexes again hit new all time highs. I keep wondering when it will end but probably should just enjoy the ride. Overbought and staying that way for longer than you think it can go on. I keep checking those SPY December puts but without a legitimate sell signal there is no point in trying that idea. Money just keeps pouring into equities with no end in sight. It will end though at some point. Two weeks to go in the December option cycle so there's plenty of time for a trade. GE was up another 1/4 and volume was better than average. Very overextended here as well. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. GDX is trying to hold its 50 week moving average at the 34 level. The weekly candlestick charts for the gold shares and the precious metals all show bullish candles for the past week. Perhaps if we get a retest of the recent lows another trade for the GDX January calls is warranted. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did come off of its best levels for the session. The 20 region seems to be the barrier here. Still overbought and staying that way, which makes sense with the rally that we've seen. Sentiment remains extremely bullish. The sell signal from one of the more reliable indicators is still out there but the timing is suspect. It can sometimes take a month for it to work but it does at least have a recent 75% success rate. That's why I wouldn't chase the rally here. There will probably be a better entry point as time goes by. I could be wrong and often am. Plenty of charts to check out over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up and down was the norm for this session as the Dow gained 85 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow had a much better gain but fell apart in the final half hour. The technical picture remains the same, overbought and staying that way. The S&P 500 has reached the top of the Bollinger bands. It will either break through to the upside or get turned back. Perhaps the jobs report tomorrow will be the catalyst one way or the other. No SPY trades for now but I'm still looking at the puts there. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains good. Still overbought for GE. Gold was up another ten bucks as the US dollar continues to fall. The XAU fell a point and GDX dropped 1/2. Volume was light. Once again the gold shares are not following the price of gold higher. That isn't a positive for the bulls. However if GDX gets back to being short term oversold again, I will consider the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit again with the market higher as well. This pattern has led to recent declines for stocks. We'll see if that pattern holds true this time around. The short term indicators have turned back up on the VIX. We're overbought and hitting new all time highs on many stock indices. There is no overhead resistance. The trend is and has been up since the beginning of November. There's still plenty of time in the December option cycle for a trade. I'll let tomorrows employment report get digested and go from there. Asia and Europe were mixed in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ finished with a slight loss. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500. The stimulus talk is back in the news but there's no deal. I'm not sure how much a deal will move the market at this point. We've been overbought for quite a while and I think that the next sustained move will be lower. I'm still waiting for a legitimate sell signal. GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume. Gold added to yesterdays gains and was up over ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its downward spiral. The gold shares didn't come along for the ride. The XAU was only up 3/4, while GDX was basically unchanged. Volume was light. GDX has climbed back above its 200 day moving average. We'll see if it can stay there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit higher today despite the slight rise in stocks. Oversold and staying that way. The VIX has yet to close below the 20 level. If it can that usually inplies a longer term rally in effect. However I still think that the next sustained move will be lower, as things cannot remain overbought indefinately. The totally bullish sentiment is another warning sign. Staying patient for now. The Fed chairmans speeches didn't move the markets. We'll see about the employment report on Friday. The background of the pandemic virus remains. Waiting on the vaccine rollout. Europe and Asia were mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

December begins to the upside as the Dow gained 185 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving back up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. New all time highs for some of the major stock indices. Remaining short term overbought for most as well. We did finish off of the best levels for the day but there is not overhead resistance and the rally remains intact. GE lost a couple cents on average volume. Gold found buyers to start the month and the futures climbed over $35. The US dollar was lower and appears to be breaking down again. That would support gold if it continues. The XAU was up 5 1/8, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for the gold shares have turned back up and it's possible that the decline there is over. Gold itself did not make it down to the $1750 level that I was looking for. I'm not in a rush to try the gold share calls here again and will simply watch and wait for now. There is a possiblity that I'll try the GDX January calls in the coming weeks. The medium term technical picture there is oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today along with stocks. That isn't the expected pattern. Still short term oversold and that condition needs to be changed eventually. It's already been quite a long time. I'm not sure if that means we're about to see some selling but we'll see. The market is running on all cylinders now to the upside. It can remain overbought much longer than you think. I am still thinking about the SPY December puts only because of the reliable sell signal that one of the indicators is giving off. However as I've said, the timing isn't guaranteed. I'll continue to wait for an actual sell signal for now. Europe and Asia were higher as money is flowing around the world. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some end of the month selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 266 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ again was the outperformer, so there's probably no need to worry about an extended decline just yet. But we are seeing a pretty reliable sell signal being flashed on one of the technical indicators that we watch. Timing is the key and we don't have that down yet. Plenty of economic data due out this week with the jobs report on Friday as the last bit of information. We've also got the Fed speking tomorrow and Wednesday. So there will be plenty of opportunity for movement. GE was off over 1/8 on good volume. It came up off of its lows. Gold fell over $5 and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was up a point and GDX rose 3/8. Volume was average for lately. Once again the gold shares are doing better than the price of gold and that's a positive for the bulls. But I'm still going to wait and see if gold can get to $1750 before I venture into another trade with the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today even with a decline in stocks. That has led to weakness lately. Still short term oversold for the VIX and it's been that way for weeks. Won't last forever. I am looking at the SPY December puts but not in a hurry to buy any at this time. A lot of sentiment indicators are overly bullish but using them for the timing of a trade isn't always the best idea. I'm trying to wait for an actual short term technical sell signal. May or may not happen this week. We should see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow. I will say that I've seen some pretty good first half of the month December declines in the past. Whether or not this year is like that remains to be seen. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight as taking some end of the month profits seemed to be a global affair. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A slight gain in a holiday shortened session as the Dow rose 38 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ was the outperformer today. GE was of 1/8 on very light volume. Gold dropped around twenty bucks on the futures and broke the $1800 support level. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. Once again the gold shares held up better than the price of gold. However with a very thinly traded holiday market I don't think that you can read too much into that. There is an uptrend line for gold that has been in effect for quite a while that comes in at $1750. If we get there I'll try the gold share calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the week. We'll enjoy the rest of this long holiday weekend and get back at it on Monday.

A pause in the rally today as the Dow fell 173 points on still heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ sporting a gain. The economic data out today was mixed. Some stronger and some weaker than expected. The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains overbought. The market will be off tomorrow and then a half day on Friday. So this week is pretty much done. GE was up a nickel and the volume was good. Gold was flat on the session after being higher early on. The US dollar was lower. The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was light. The gold shares had better relative strength than the price of gold and we haven't seen that in a while. It is however too early to tell if the decline here is over. GDX does remain oversold on both a short and medium term basis. It is trying to hang on to its 50 week moving average on the weekly charts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower despite the drop in price today. That's a divergence that we haven't seen in a while. Still short term oversold on the VIX. My thinking right now is that the rally will continue and the market will remain overbought. If and when I do see a short term sell signal, I might try the SPY December puts. But the trend now is decidedly up and I do not want to go against that at the moment. There is also no overhead resistance for stocks as we are hitting new all time highs on many of the stock indices. Trying to remain patient for now. Europe and Asia were mixed in the overnight trade. A Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there. Enjoy the time off.

The Dow had its first close above the 30000 milestone today as it gained 454 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positve for the second day in a row. The summation index is moving higher. Only buyers to be found as the market has no overhead resistance. The election has finally been sorted out and the vaccine news has been nothing but positive. Short term overbought for the major stock indexes and staying that way. That is the hallmark of a rally. My idea for the SPY December puts is on the back burner for now. There appears to be nothing in the way of higher prices going forward. There is a sell signal out there from one of the reliable indicators but the timing is in question. For now I'll have to wait. I thought this week would be quiet and it certainly isn't that. My ideas have been off lately. GE was up another 1/3 on very heavy volume. Overextended here to be sure. Gold continued to drop as the futures lost another thirty bucks. The US dollar was lower as well. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good. Gold and the gold shares are in free fall but the gold shares held up better relatively today. Oversold and staying that way both short and medium term for the gold shares. I did not anticipate that. Staying on the sidelines here for now. Sometimes you have to simply step aside and let things play out. That seems to be the case right now regarding GDX. Unless you own the puts there and then you are looking good. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains oversold. We're in the third week of being oversold on the VIX and this won't last forever. It has already been longer than usual. Small caps, the TRAN and the most of the major indices are leading the way here. The NASDAQ has been the laggard but that could change soon. Money is pouring into stocks at the moment so we'll have to see how far the momentum run goes. It's usually farther than you think it can go. Only a couple of trading days left this week and one of them is cut short. I'll wait things out for now. Europe and Asia were higher as stocks are being purchased around the globe. We'll look for higher prices again tomorrow.

The Dow gained 330 points to start the holiday shortened week. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive and the volume was heavy. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow was the best relative performer on the day regarding the major averages. I was expecting the week to be rather slow so we'll see where things go from here. Still short term overbought for most of the stock indices. No news out to speak of today. We'll get some data due on Wednesday. The ongoing backdrop of the pandemic virus remains the same. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Still very overbought here. Gold got slammed as the futures dropped over $35. Gold has now broken throught the last support at $1850. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 4 2/3, while GDX lost over 1 1/2. Volume was above average. GDX is oversold and staying that way. I did not see that coming. My stop limit loss order to sell my GDX January calls was knifed through without the order being filled. That happens when you get a quick drop like we had this morning. As much as I'd like to stay with this trade, I simply dumped the calls at the market which is really what you're supposed to do in these kind of instances. The loss was a little over 50% and I can live with that. My idea about the desending rectangle on the daily GDX was wrong as was my expectation of some upside from the short term oversold technical readings. Now that gold has broken the $1850 level, it's anyones guess where the next support will be. $1800 seems logical but will it hold? I'll probably try the GDX calls again at some point but not right away as my take on things here is off. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Oversold and staying that way here and that is supportive of the current rally. I'll be waiting for a sell signal in the S&P 500, hopefully in the next week of so. If that happens I'll be trying the SPY December puts. My thought right now is to let this week pass and go from there. Another losing trade like today doesn't help with the confidence factor. So patience will be required for now. Asia and Europe were mixed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Option expiration week finished on a down note as the Dow fell 219 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. It was a down week for most of the major stock indices after a strong beginning. On the plus side the NASDAQ continues to be a better relative performer. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. I am looking for weakness in the stock market going forward. I'm also looking at the chance to purchase some SPY December puts if we see a near term light volume rally. That could be the case with a holiday week on tap. We'll see. GE was up a dime on lighter volume. Remaining short term overbought here. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished little change once again. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added 1 /3. Volume was average for what it's been lately. The gold shares remain short term oversold. GDX is trying to hold its 200 day moving average. My GDX January calls are still losers. I'm still thinking that this trade will get stopped out before it shows any kind of profit. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit higher today and looks like it wants to form a bottom here. That would fit with lower stock prices going forward. It remains short term oversold. Nothing new in the fundamental background. The pandemic virus remains and Congress still can't agree on more stimulus money to hand out. Thanksgiving week coming up and I think that it will be a snoozer. Holding the GDX calls and looking to possibly purchase some SPY puts. That's the game plan for now. Plenty to check out over the weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe a bit higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 44 points on good volume. The advance/declines were psoitive. The summation index is moving up. After the early morning lows the market spent the day fighting its way back. The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains overbought. The NASDAQ was again the better relative performer and that's a plus for the bulls. We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow. GE was off a ferw cents on lighter volume. Gold continues to fall, the futures dropped again today. The US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on what passes for average volume these days. My GDX January calls remain losers and at this rate will be stopped out soon. GDX has made it all the way back to its 200 day moving average. Oversold on both the short and medium term for GDX. If GDX doesn't bounce here it would be in real trouble. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a positive market. Still short term oversold for the VIX. One of the indicators that I watch that doesn't normally give off a signal is flashing a sell. Over the past three years it has generated four sell signals with three of them preceding decent declines. It sometimes has a lag before the selling begins in earnest. Note that it's worked 75% of time in the past few years, so it is something to be aware of. I'm now considering the SPY December puts if we get a short term sell signal. Perhaps if we get a light volume holiday week rally, that would be the set up. We'll see. Europe and Asia followed yesterdays US market lower. We'll see how option expiration goes tomorrow.

We saw some more selling today as the Dow fell 344 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move up. The market just started to fall apart in the final forty minutes today. I certainly don't know why. Could be option expiration related but that's just a guess. The volume has been very heavy lately but I think that relates to getting business done before next holiday week. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. There's plenty of room to head lower on the indicators from here. Perhaps my current positive outlook isn't warranted. GE added a nickel on heavy volume but came off of the highs for the day. Gold fell over ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU dropped 4 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume picked up a touch to the downside. My open order for the GDX January calls was filled and is showing a small loss. This trade will at least be managed better as the stop loss order is already in place. As I've already said, the gold shares are both short and medium term oversold. Unless we are about to see some sort of collapse, these issues should turn back up and sooner rather than later. I don't know if I will hold this trade until January as I think that perhaps any chance to get out with a profit may be taken. We'll just have to see how things play out as it goes along, like any other trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up today, which goes along with a down market. Still oversold here on a short term basis. The NASDAQ again fared a little better than the major averages. I am puzzled by the market action so far this week as I expected the usual expiration week positive bias to take effect. We'll have to see how the rest of the week trades. I'm still a believer that next week will be slow. Perhaps it would have been better to wait until after Thanksgiving to attempt the next trade. However it's too late for that now. Asia was mixed and Europe generally positive in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on what happens in tonights market action.

The rally took a breather today as the Dow lost 167 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. No real news to speak of today just time to take some profits. The short term technical picture remains the same with the S&P 500 along with the other major stock indices remaining overbought. I still expect more buying ahead of option expiration and the upcoming holiday week. Transactions will be completed this week and then I expect the market to go to sleep for a week during Thanksgiving. I could be wrong but probably not this time. GE was up about a dime on average volume. This issue needs a rest as well. Gold was off around six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower as well. The XAU lost 2 1/8, while GDX shed around 3/4. Volume remains light for the gold shares. My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there. Another day like today would get it filled. GDX is lagging the actual price of gold here and that is not a positive. Perhaps my idea for the calls here is wrong. I'm sticking with it though because we are oversold on both a short and medium term basis. If you don't try the calls here, when would you? If the gold shares were in a protracted down trend, they could remain oversold for a while. But to me the pattern is a declining rectangle that is a consolidation of the previous up trend. Price should break to the upside when the consolidation is complete. That's my best guess at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today and that fits with the small decline. Very oversold on the daily VIX chart. Perhaps there's a decline that I don't see coming. The NASDAQ showed better relative strength today and that's a short term plus. The background environment remains the same with a lame duck president along with the ongoing pandemic. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The week starts off to the upside as the Dow climbed 470 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow is fifty points away from the 30000 milstone. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. There is no overhead resistance. I would expect a continued run up into expiration Friday. Short term overbought for the major averages and staying that way. The only fly in the ointment is the lagging performance of the NASDAQ but I don't thank that will stop the party anytime soon. More positive news this morning about another vaccine for the pandemic virus. Of course things won't simply turn around overnight but at least there's the hope of some progress as we move forward. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Gold bounced around and finished little changed. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was flat, with GDX off 1/4. Volume was very light once again. Not much interest in the gold shares. I am leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Remaining short term oversold here which also fits in with a market rally. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 continue to move higher as well. Simply put, we're in rally mode and we'll have to see how far it can go. Sometimes it's a lot farther than you think it can go. Seasonality favors higher prices here along with option expiration week. We'll enjoy the ride for now. Europe and Asia continued up as money around the world is heading into stocks. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 399 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up and remain overbought. In rallies these indicators simply remain overbought as the index moves higher. That is what I expect to happen during expiration week coming up. The market should rally into next Friday and then slow down for the following Thanksgiving holiday week. That's my prognosis at the moment. GE was up 1/2 on good volume. Remaining short term overbought here too. Gold gained ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was pretty light. Gold itself had a pretty good drop this week but I'm a believer in higher prices for the medium term. I'm leaving my open order for some GDX January calls out there. I'll revisit this idea over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. I'd venture to guess that just as the S&P will remain short term overbought, the VIX will remain short term oversold as we move higher next week. We'll wait and see if that actually happens. Retail sales and some housing data are due out next week. The blow off top that we saw for the market on Monday was not an end to the rally. It appears that it was simply a sign that a pause in the rally was at hand. The fact that we did not see a sustained decline afterwards validates that theory in my mind. We'll simply have to see how prices develop next week. The pandemic virus remains but the market is now looking past it with the hopes of a vaccine now in the forefront. How this all plays out remains to be seen. I'll be checking the charts this weekend and who knows? Maybe I'll come up with a short term trade for next week. Asia was lower and Europe generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow dropped 317 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are starting to roll over but I do not expect a big decline here. The NASDAQ was the best relative performer today and that's a plus. Nothing new on the news front with the pandemic virus the main concern. The economic data out today and for the week hasn't really been a market mover. As long as the summation index keeps moving up the path of least resistance is higher. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up over ten bucks and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU added 1 3/8, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. I dumped my GDX November calls for a 95% loss. The entry was terrible on this trade but it still had a chance at a profit at one point. However when gold dropped $100 in a day, this trade was doomed. I really just should have sold out on that day and taken a smaller loss but it still would have been substantial. Just as when the overnight news has the SPY gaining or losing 100 points, the same thing can and does happen with gold. But that is an exception and not the rule. I did place an open order for some GDX January calls and I'm leaving it out there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish off of its best levels. The VIX short term indicators remain oversold despite todays loss. With six days to go in the November option cycle, I don't have any SPY trades in mind. Volatility has kept the option premiums high for now. Time decay will speed up here soon as well. I'll be watching and waiting for now. Taking the GDX call loss today doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

More mixed messages as the Dow was off by 23 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ posting good gains. Lately it seems as though these major indexes are taking turns in leading the way higher. It's been suggested this is just stock rotation and that is possible. A more positive sign would be if all three could advance past the highs of Monday. We'll watch and wait at this point but I do think eventually it will happen. The bond market was closed for Veterans day. GE was off almost a dime on lighter volume. GE is way above its 50 day moving average and I'd expect it to head back towards that region. Gold fell around $15 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. I placed a limit order to sell my GDX November calls but it wasn't filled. I'll be out of this losing trade by the end of the week. Looks to be a toal wipeout with a 95% loss. That's what can happen when you're long the gold shares and gold drops $100 in a day. I'm now looking out to the GDX January calls. GDX is both short and medium term oversold at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to drop and remain oversold. That is usually the case for stock rallies. It is implying higher prices now going forward. Of course my reading of the VIX chart hasn't been all that consistantly accurate over the past few weeks so we'll have to keep that in mind. The overall backdrop remains the same with the election over and the pandemic virus remaining. At this point I'm expecting higher prices going into option expiration next week. We'll see. Europe and Asia continue to climb. Keeping an eye on tonights developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher but the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ finished in the red. The Dow gained 262 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. The S&P remains short term overbought. The short term technical indicators for the NASDAQ have rolled over. The overall market spent much of the day trading lower in a sideways range. The exception was the Dow. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was heavy. Gold had a decent bounce as the futures were up around $20. The US dollar finished little changed. The bounce in gold did not help the gold shares. The XAU fell 4 1/2, while GDX shed 1 1/3. Volume was average. Probably should have sold my GDX November calls today as a rise in gold without a rise in the gold stocks is bearish. This trade is a solid loser. I might try this idea again though when we get completely oversold. Not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Yesterdays VIX action implied lower prices in the near term. Both the NASDAQ and S&P were lower today. I would expect to see some more near term weakness though. I could be wrong. Still eight days left in the November option cycle. So there is plenty of time for another trade before expiration out there somewhere. Europe and Asia continued higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the ongoing developments.

It was a volatile start to a new trading week as a successful vaccine for the pandemic virus was announced. The Dow gained 834 points on explosive very heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The Dow opened with a gap higher and was up over 1500 at one point. The big 3 major indices all hit new all time highs early in the session. But things may have gottten a bit ahead of themselves as the NASDAQ finished in the red. Bonds got whacked and it appears that money went into stocks. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and todays volume looks like some kind of blow off top. We'll have to see how the rest of the week turns out. Todays price action makes us again aware of the effects of headline risk either way. GE was up about 2/3 on the same very heavy volume. Gold got clobbered on the vaccine news. The futures were off over $100 at one point and finished the day with a loss of around $85. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 8 3/4, while GDX lost 2 1/2. Volume was good here as traders bailed out. My GDX November calls went back to solid losers. The trade is once again a cut the loss proposition. Nine days to go in the November option cycle and unless we see a dramatic turnaround for gold this week, this trade will undoubtably be a loss. Most of the short term technical indicators have rolled back down for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX turned around from being lower early and ended up positive on the day despite the huge rally in the Dow. Lately that has been the precursor to lower prices for stocks. The VIX is short term oversold as well. If today was indeed some kind of blow off top then the VIX will be correct in letting us know that prices will be lower in the near term. Hasn't happened yet but this has been pretty accurate lately. Of course that probably won't help my gold share call trade but the market certainly doesn't care about what I'm doing. The new vaccine will have to be mass produced and distributed. That won't happen overnight but the market is a forward looking mechanism. Europe and Asia sported very good gains last night as well. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A pause in the rally as the Dow fell 66 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. The jobs report was a bit better than expected but the market seems to still be focussed on politics. The S&P 500 is almost short term overbought but in rallies it can stay that way. The weekly candlestick chart looks positive for the S&P and new all time highs look to be coming soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if we track sideways before attempting the next leg up. GE was up a dime on OK volume. Gold was slightly higher and the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose twenty cents. Volume was light. My GDX November calls remain in the black for now. GDX is stalling at the declining tops line but I think it is simply a matter of time before it breaks through. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good drop today but we didn't see a decent rise in stock prices. Not exactly sure what that means. Now short term oversold on the VIX technical indicators. It was a great week for stocks and we'll see if we can continue the run up next week. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Up, up and away as the Dow roared ahead by 542 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Nothing new from the Fed and that was fine by the market. Still no official word on the presidential election but that didn't stop the buying either. Pandemic virus? Yeah that's still here but not a concern for stocks at the moment. The S&P 500 is close to near term resistance but the short term technical indicators still have room to move higher. At this rate we'll be at new all time highs by next week. But realistically it might take longer than that. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that's a positive. We'll see what the jobs report has to say tomorrow and the markets reaction to that. GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold exploded higher and gained almost fifty bucks. The US dollar got crushed. Money is moving around. The XAU soared 10 3/4, while GDX climbed 2 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now at resistance from a down trend line that began back in early August. The pattern on the daily candlestick chart is a declining rectangle that resembles a flag. That pattern has now digested the previous gain in GDX. We should break through the resistance in the coming days and challenge the recent highs at 45. NEM has a similar pattern and broke its resistance earlier this week. I expect GDX to follow. My GDX November calls went from solid losers to solid winners with todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today but did come up off of its best levels. Perhaps the rally needs a rest. Getting oversold now for the VIX but not completely there. The major stock indexes are in rally mode and new all time highs are in the near future barring some kind of unexpected catastrophe. If for some reason the election results go sideways, that would put a damper on stocks. But the market knows everything and it's saying that owning stocks now is the way to go. You may agree or disagree but you have to at least listen. Europe and Asia were higher as the money is flowing around the world. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The rally lives on post-election as the Dow gained 367 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We did fall back from the days high as the Dow at one point was up 800. No clear winner in the election just yet but it appears that Joe Biden will prove victorious. Combine that with a republican senate and gridlock will be the norm. The market loves that as the status quo will remain. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the major indices still have room to move higher. Perhaps the Fed announcement tomorrow will provide the impetus for another day up. We'll see. Most of the major stock index charts look like they want to go higher but the market as always will go where it wants. I'm looking for more gains in the coming days and weeks. GE was flat on the day and the volume was good. Gold dropped around $8 but was down more overnight. The US dollar had a huge election rally in the overnight session but finished the day with a small loss. The XAU fell four points, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. My GDX November calls are back to being solid losers. I'll look to see how they end the week after the Fed and the jobs report. The short term indicators have stalled here and may turn back down. I suppose if I get any chance to end this trade without a loss I'll take it. That may just be wishful thinking at this point though. I did cancel the open order for more GDX calls at a lower strike price. Might revisit this idea later. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX had a huge drop and bounced off its 50 day moving average. Not yet oversold on the indicators here. The election is basically over and the market has spoken. Could we hit new all time highs before the end of the year? Perhaps but we still have the pandemic virus to deal with and there doesn't seem to be any cure coming in the near term. Some foreign countries are returning to lockdowns and that will put a damper on whatever growth that there was. We'll watch and wait for now when it comes to the coronavirus. Most markets around the world continued to climb higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines and see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The pre-election rally continued as the Dow gained 555 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn back up. It appears that the market doesn't really care who wins tonight as long as it is over. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. The next stop looks like the 50 day moving average at 3400. The Dow has now gained almost a thousand points in the two days before the election results. Certainly it doesn't appear to be worried about the outcome. Support has held and unless we see a complete turnaround tomorrow, which I doubt, the market is heading higher. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Gold futures added another $15 as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was lighter than it's been. My GDX November calls are now showing a small profit. I still have the other open order out there for the GDX calls at a lower strike price but will probably cancel it tonight. GDX has now moved too far for this order to get filled. At least the idea here was right but the timing was off. Water under the bridge as they say, I've got to just move on from here. I think that the gold shares still have room to go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and has plenty of room to move down. That should match up with higher stock prices going forward. I suppose we'll watch the election results tonight and see what happens tomorrow. But I'm pretty sure that we've just begun a sustained rally regardless. Of course I've been sure about a few things lately that didn't come to pass. We've got the Fed and the jobs report to get through as the week moves on. Markets around the globe rallied pretty strongly as well overnight. Money is moving into stocks. We'll see how it goes post election tomorrow.

We start off this important week with a gain as the Dow climbed 423 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. This week holds plenty of variables. We've got the US election tomorrow, followed by the Fed announcement on Thursday and the employment report on Friday. So there will be a lot for the market to digest. Today the Dow was leading things higher with the NASDAQ a laggard. The bulls would like to see that the other way around. On the plus side, support for the S&P 500 has held for now. The short term technical indicators here have started to turn up but they remain oversold. So we are either going to start to rally from here or this is a pause before we head lower. Now I've already thought that we'd be moving higher during the decline of the past few weeks. So I'll just have to wait to see what the market tells us going forward. GE was up a dime and the volume was good. Gold continued moving higher as the futures gained $15. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 4 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume was average. All aboard? It appears that the train has left the station for the gold shares. GDX has risen over 2 1/2 points in three days. Unfortunately for me the order that I placed for the GDX November calls at a lower strike price never got filled. I'm leaving it out there in case we get some kind of sharp drop. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and I believe that higher is the way we're going to go. Resistance comes in at the 41 level. The GDX November calls that I do own are still losers but the loss is much smaller than it was. If GDX continues to rally from here they may even eventually show a profit. Plenty of time left in the November option cycle but the entry timing of this trade was too early. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits a rising market. Still overbought here and the short term indicators are rolling over. The roll over fits a bullish market scenario if it continues. I would like to think that the selling has concluded here but my conclusions lately have been way off the mark. I would expect some major market movement after the election results are in but would only be guessing if I were to say which way. We'll let the market prove to us where it wants to go. Should be interesting. Europe and Asia were higher overnight so perhaps money is finding its way back into stocks. Or it could be a beginning of the month cash flow situation. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the downside as the Dow fell 157 points on very good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. We were off over 500 points but a last hour rally brought the most watched index back. Still short term oversold but it looks like the Dow is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is trying not to break the lows of September. The NASDAQ did lead the way lower and that is not a positive. Pandemic virus angst combined with election uncertainty has led to the current market environment. Some things should clear up by Wednesday morning. But just how the market reacts to the election results is anybodies guess. The oversold condition would normally lead you to purchase the SPY calls. However the fact that we've been oversold and are staying that way warrants keeping any possiblity out there. Caution is the word for now regarding the SPY. GE was up a few cents on good volume. Gold had a bounce as the futures rose about ten bucks. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was better than it's been. My GDX November calls are still losers, just not as much. The entry timing here was atrociuos however I think that I can cut the loss down. My open order for the lower strike price GDX November calls was not filled again. I'm leaving it out there but I don't think it will get filled. GDX has already begun to move higher and the short term indicators are turning back up. I'm now fairly confident that the calls here will prove to be the proper selection. However the ones that I have already purchased are so far out of the money that they won't prove to be capable of turning a profit. There are still three weeks to go in the November option cycle but the optimum time to purchase the calls was over the past two trading sessions. I was early. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I would like to get my order for the lower strike price GDX calls filled. I cannot let that affect what I'm doing though because there will be opportunities in the coming days. The recent volatility creates favorable circumstances for trades. The VIX closed much lower than where it opened and is still overbought. It opened above 40 and closed near 38. I think that it is forming a top here and that would lead to a rally in stocks. But everything that I've thought in the past two weeks or so has been off target. So I would take anything said here with a grain of salt. Markets can remain oversold for quite some time just like they can remain overbought. With the NASDAQ leading the way lower I'll say once again caution is advised. We should get some kind of resolution about future policy when the election results are in. How the market reacts to it is the question. We would only be guessing at the answer. I'll be double checking my work over the weekend to come up with a strategy for next week. Asia was down and Europe mixed to finish the week and the month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A weak bounce today as the Dow rose 139 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. We had been up over 350 at one point. Somethings going on here but I don't know what. Tech earnings after the bell should set the tone for tomorrows open barring any other overnight developments. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. We'll get the end of the month tomorrow and the trading could be skewed. We'll follow the summation index and the trend is down. I'm not sure what to expect next, so no SPY trades in mind for now. GE was off a few cents on good volume. Gold was off around half a dozen while the US dollar continued higher. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares followed stocks once again. Normally I'd say that it's bullish that the gold shares rose with the price of gold going down. But these aren't normal times. The rise in the US dollar would be a headwind for gold if it continues. My GDX November calls are still solid losers. I do have another open order for the GDX November calls at a lower strike price out there. I may cancel it tonight after I review todays price action. The technicals say buy the gold shares here but my thinking has been pretty wrong lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. Still overbought here and the VIX is saying that the decline is probably over for now. We'll see. Hopefully things will start to become clearer when we get the election out of the way next week. We're entering a favorable seasonal period for stocks but this year has been anything but predictable. I think that we'll just let the week and month come to a close. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The market fell apart today. The Dow lost 943 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We'll take our cues from there as we should. Whatever I've said about a rise in stocks is wrong. Todays price action confirms that. When there's buy signals that don't work you have to take notice. Oversold now and staying that way and that isn't a good sign going forward. I certainly don't know what the story is here but the market does. I'm not sure how far down the S&P 500 will go but the next support is at 3200. Unknown to me why this is happening but if it is a double top here the measuring objective is around 2900 or so for the S&P. That's pretty far from where we are right now. The summation index is not near the crash zone but I suppose that doesn't mean it can't happen. I guess we'll see if 3200 holds and take it from there. GE bucked the trend and was up 1/3 on extremely heavy volume. Surprise earnings report there. Gold got clobbered as the US dollar was higher. The October futures contract lost $36. The XAU fell almost ten points, while GDX shed 2 1/3. Volume was double what it's been lately as it expanded to the downside. My GDX November calls are now solid losers. I'm thinking that if I give it a few days I can cut the loss a bit from where it is now. Maybe. I did place an order for some other GDX November calls at a lower strike price but it wasn't filled. That may not be the best idea here but the gold share index is oversold and the technical indicators are in a spot where they've rallied from in the recent past. However if the market continues to drop like it did today, it will take the gold shares with it. If the gold futures can't hold the $1850 level, this idea will fail. I probably shouldn't chase things lower here so we'll see what I decide over the evening. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped to over 40 and is very overbought. I guess the question is how high will it go and how long will this last? Volatility is through the roof but it can go higher. One of the more prudent things to do right now is simply head for the sidelines. In my view, unknown market forces are at work here. Oversold and staying that way doesn't happen often. The ensuing declines are usually pretty severe. The reason I'm a believer in the gold shares here is because the technical indicators both short and medium term are in spots that have led to rallies. Will this time be different? It could be but the odds say otherwise. Sometimes in markets like these, you can't be afraid to take a chance and support your ideas. The volatility works both ways and does create opportunities if you are able to take advantage of them. Tomorrow will prove to be another interesting session. We've got the GDP report and earnings from a few of the big tech companies. Money is heading for the exits though as Europe had big drops in stocks. Asia was slightly lower but should play catch up tonight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight markets and see how things go tomorrow.

Some follow through downside for the Dow as it lost 222 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It was a sideways affair for the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ posted a gain. So a mixed bag to say the least. Getting to oversold on the short term technical indicators for the S&P. I think that we are about to head higher and will possibly reach new all time highs before the November option expiration. One of my medium term indicators is starting to flash a buy signal. This indicator gives signals that last for weeks not days. Unless things just completely fall apart here, the signal will prove to be valid. Now I have been bullish in the face of a two week decline. But I think we are simply in a pause before we start to move back up. GE was off 1/4 on good volume. The short term indicators have rolled over here. Gold finished up around $5 on the October futures. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX was up by 5/8. Volume remains very light for the gold shares. My GDX November calls are about where I bought them. Still oversold for GDX, so I'm hoping we are in the beginning of a sustained move higher. But I can't rule out more sideways price inactivity ahead of the US election. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and we are short term overbought. The VIX should turn around here and that would imply higher stock prices going forward. Perhaps the GDP report on Thursday will be a catalyst for some buying ahead of the election. The background remains the same with the pandemic virus and uncertainty around the election as the main concerns. A positive NASDAQ today is a plus for the bulls. I'm already in the trade that I was looking for so it's a watch and wait mode for now. I am considering getting some SPY calls but the premiums there remain elevated. Still plenty of time in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow got pounded to begin the last week of October as it lost 650 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. It could have been worse as we were off 950 points in the morning. Selling everywhere as the realization that a stimulus deal isn't going to happen hit home. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 turned lower. The S&P did try to hang on to its 50 day moving average though. 3400 is holding for today but any follow through selling will take that number out. I have been constantly bullish over the past couple of weeks and that prognosis has been proven wrong. Not sure where we go from here. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. GE was off a quarter on good volume. Gold finished little changed on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The gold shares followed the market lower. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume remains light here. Not completely oversold now for the gold shares but we're getting there. My open order for the GDX November calls was finally filled. It's showing a small loss. The calls are out of the money but have plenty of time to work. I'm not exactly sure if this is the right idea for now but after looking at things over the weekend I decided to take the chance. There is the possiblity that we simply go sideways for the gold shares and that is the caveat with this particular idea. I do not think that a huge decline is going to happen with gold right now but my take on things hasn't exactly been right lately. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX spiked up with the huge loss today. We closed above the 200 day moving average and also above the 33 level. The indicators here spiked up as well but there is still some room to go a little higher. Follow through selling tomorrow will take us to short term overbought on the VIX. I'm not sure what is going on here but it appears that we'll be heading lower in a hurry. The market, as always, knows way more than we do. Unless we see some kind of turnaround tomorrow, the selling will continue. It is also looking like a big picture event as markets around the globe sold off. We'll know in due time what the real cause was but for now we'll just have to enjoy the show. There will be opportunities and I hope that I found one today with the gold shares. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the DAX taking the brunt of it. We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight developments.

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow was lower and other indices were higher. The most watched index fell 28 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 sported small gains on the session. We are running in place here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P remain mid-range. It feels like we are in a holding pattern until the results of the US presidential election. The pandemic virus remains. The stimulus package is still all talk and no action. The market remains a hostage to these outside influences. I still think that we're heading higher but sideways is the trend for now. GE was off a few cents, dropped from its highs for the day and is overbought. Gold was off a few bucks but did finish up off of the lows. The US dollar was lower. The XAU was down about a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains very light. My open order was almost filled today for the GDX November calls. I'll decide over the weekend if this is a trade that I really want to do. Not completely oversold here yet so I may have to adjust the order. I'll see how gold is trading on Sunday night and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is heading back towards its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have turned back down and have room to go lower. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 were both up today and I think that bodes well for the bulls moving forward. I'm still leaning bullish here on the market but we may have another week of sideways malaise. I could be wrong and often am. Lately my view on the markets hasn't been accurate. We'll see if it gets any better as we go along in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish the week. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend and deciding what to do about the potential GDX November call trade. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher today as the market shrugged off overnight bad news. The Dow gained 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The S&P 500 has held its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators appear to be trying to turn back up and they remain mid-range. I'm still looking for higher prices going forward. The market remains hostage to the pandemic, upcoming election and stimulus negotiations. However with plenty of time in the November option cycle, there's no rush to trade. GE was up 3/8 on average volume. Gold dropped back today as the futures fell twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher. The XAU shed 1 2/3, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. The gold shares did rebound from their worst levels of the day. My order remains out there for the GDX November calls as todays drop was not enough to trigger it. I do think that GDX will eventually trade higher although we cannot rule out and extended sideways pattern. That's about what we're seeing now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell and that coincides with a rise in stock prices. The short term indicators here have rolled over and imply higher prices going forward. If we can get the summation index moving up again, that would be the all clear for a rally. Hasn't happened yet but I do think that it will. May have to wait until after the election though. For now we'll watch and wait for a good signal one way or the other. Europe and Asia were generally lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was an up and down session as the Dow fell 98 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The market is being held hostage by the political drama in Washington. Stimulus or no stimulus, deadlines passed and extended. It's a non stop government soap opera. The S&P 500 technicals are still mid-range so we'll wait to see which way they go. I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term. Of course I've been saying that for a week and it hasn't happened. No SPY trades in mind for now. GE lost a couple cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold found a bid as the futures were up around $15. The US dollar continued lower. The XAU rose two points, while GDX was up about 1/2. Volume remains light here. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there but it might be too late. The short term technical indicators for GDX are starting to turn around. This won't be a trade that I chase though. Either my order gets filled where I have it or I'll pass. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with lower prices and that's not the usual reaction either. We did not break the 200 day moving average to the upside here and we are at the top of a trend channel. So my thinking is that we'll be seeing a lower VIX and higher stock prices going forward from here. The short term technical indicators have also started to roll over. If we get an announcement of a stimulus deal the market will have an excuse to rally. Hasn't happened yet. For now I'm trying to remain patient as we wait to see what the future holds. Still in the pandemic virus mode along with pre-election angst. We'll have a better picture after November 3rd hopefully. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce today as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trending sideways. Still waiting on a stimulus deal and we should know before the open tomorrow. Todays upside was expected as we did have an oversold signal on one of the technical indicators that's usually reliable. The question now is was it a one day bounce or the beginning of something sustained to the upside? I'm inclined to believe the latter, as I think that some kind of deal will be reached and the market will rally. Just a week ago the talks had supposedly ended but we see where we are now. I guess the Tuesday deadline for the stimulus talks could be extended as well. We're dealing with politicians so you can't really believe anything that you hear. The market is held hostage to this nonsense for now but it too will pass. The S&P 500 technical indicators on a short term basis are mid-range. Could go either way here but I still think that we'll move higher from these levels this week. GE was up a nickel on lighter volume. Gold was up eight bucks as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume remains pretty light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. I guess the most I can hope for here is that GDX trades sideways for a while and perhaps the order eventually gets filled. Plenty of time in the November option cycle for GDX to get oversold though. That would be the reasonable and ideal time to try the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today despite a rise in the market again. This has spelled near term trouble for stocks lately but not long lasting. I have no idea what it means this time around. I haven't been able to wrap my head around what the VIX has been doing lately. One day it acts like it should and another it does the opposite. It is short term overbought and I would expect a drop in the VIX and a rise in stock prices in the coming days. That's my best guess right now. However my ideas on the market haven't been exactly correct lately and hence that's why I'm not trading the SPY right now. Not to mention the expanded option premiums due to the extra week in the November cycle. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what kind of announcement we get on the US stimulus package and take it from there.

The Dow fell 410 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now starting to roll over. Worry about a stimulus deal is the excuse for todays sell off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down and are heading lower. They are mid-range at the moment. I certainly thought that by now we would have turned higher but my read on things here was wrong. I am now getting a buy signal from one of my technical indicators but with so much time left in the November options I'm not going to venture into the SPY calls. Premiums are high for the options. However if a stimulus deal is announced, you can expect quite a short term rally in my view. Conversely if a deal isn't reached, lower prices will ensue. GE was flat on the day and the volume was good. Gold was off a buck or so and the US dollar was lower. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume remains very light. Once again the gold shares are leading the way lower and that's bearish for the precious metals complex. Nonetheless I'm keeping my open order out there for the Novermber GDX calls. If GDX continues to drop it should get filled. Not yet oversold on the short term for GDX but we're getting there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX once again foreshadowed a drop in prices when rising with a rise in equity prices last week. The previous time it led to a quick decline that was not long lasting. It was higher today which fits in with a down market. Just about short term overbought on the indicators there. Combine that with a short term buy signal that I mentioned before and a case can be made for the SPY calls here. I'm not willing to take that chance though. But I would not be surprised if a stimulus deal is reached tomorrow and the market rallies. I would be surprised if some kind of deal isn't reached. We can simply wait and see. There is so much time left on the November options that there will be other opportunities down the road with lower option premiums. Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.