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Tuesday, December 08, 2020

We had another one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. It gained 104 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The short term overbought condition continues as well. But no matter. New all time highs were registered in most of the major stock indices, with the Russell 2000 leading the way. Plenty of liquidity still around and no end in sight for the rally. Yes, I'm looking at the SPY December puts but have yet to see a decent short term sell signal. Fundamentally nothing has changed as there is no stimulus deal and the pandemic virus remains. More restrctions across the country but it hasn't affected the stock market yet. The beat goes on. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up $8 on the February futures contract as the US dollar had another slight gain. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still above the 20 level. The short term technical indicators here have started to roll back over. If that continues it implies more upside in the near term. There's really nothing in the way of higher prices at the moment. Sentiment extremes continue but that could last for a while and it already has. No overhead resitance for the stock indexes. We're in a favorable seasonal time period. One of the technical indicators that I follow is flashing a sell signal but the timing there could be as much as a month early. It is pretty reliable though so that is why I would not chase the upside here. That doesn't mean that we won't continue to go higher. However when the decline does occur it should be legitimate. Meaning at least 5% or more. We'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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