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Wednesday, December 02, 2020

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ finished with a slight loss. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500. The stimulus talk is back in the news but there's no deal. I'm not sure how much a deal will move the market at this point. We've been overbought for quite a while and I think that the next sustained move will be lower. I'm still waiting for a legitimate sell signal. GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume. Gold added to yesterdays gains and was up over ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its downward spiral. The gold shares didn't come along for the ride. The XAU was only up 3/4, while GDX was basically unchanged. Volume was light. GDX has climbed back above its 200 day moving average. We'll see if it can stay there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit higher today despite the slight rise in stocks. Oversold and staying that way. The VIX has yet to close below the 20 level. If it can that usually inplies a longer term rally in effect. However I still think that the next sustained move will be lower, as things cannot remain overbought indefinately. The totally bullish sentiment is another warning sign. Staying patient for now. The Fed chairmans speeches didn't move the markets. We'll see about the employment report on Friday. The background of the pandemic virus remains. Waiting on the vaccine rollout. Europe and Asia were mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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