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Monday, December 14, 2020

One day reversals seem to be the new norm as the Dow opened higher and closed lower again. The most watched index dropped 185 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to turn around or at least stall. I was all set to buy some SPY December calls on weakness but we had a gap higher at the open. After the first hour the market started to deteriorate and kept moving lower for the rest of the session. The TRAN had a very negative day and perhaps will be leading us lower here. But the NASDAQ posted a gain on the day and the Russell 2000 had a slight gain. I'm still thinking about those SPY calls for the last week in the December option cycle if we're lower again tomorrow. I am getting a short term buy signal on one of the technical indicators I follow. The risk is pretty high though. We do have the Fed announcement on Wednesday to get through along with retail sales. GE lost 1/3 on lighter volume. The short term indicators are now rolling over and GE deserves to take a break. Gold was off a dozen on the February futures and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. I still have the open order out there for the GDX January calls again. Another day like today will probably get it filled. I'm not so sure about this idea anymore because gold hasn't shown any ability lately to have a sustained rally. We are approaching previous technical levels that have provided for at least a bounce though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and broke through its upper Bollinger band. It is almost short term overbought as well. This is another reason to perhaps get long on weakness tomorrow despie the short time remaining on the December options. Could things just fall apart here? I don't think so but the market goes where it wants to. I can't imagine the Fed on Wednesday upsetting the apple cart but you never know. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over so I suppose we can't rule anything out. Staying on the sidelines is choice to be made as well. We'll see how the futures trade overnight and take it from there. Still no stimulus deal and the Brexit saga drags on. The vaccine rollout has begun in the US but the pandemic virus remains. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight with the exception of China and Hong Kong. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.

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