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Thursday, December 17, 2020

Right on cue with higher prices as the Dow gained 147 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. New all time highs for many of the major stock indices. Expiration Friday tomorrow and the positive bias for the week has been evident. The stimulus deal has been promised by the end of the weekend. That might be the final push up or perhaps a reason to sell. What more good news is to come? Short term overbought for the S&P 500 but there is no overhead resistance. We'll let tomorrow go by and perhaps next week as well since the market will be in holiday mode. GE was off a few cents and the volume was very light. Gold shot up thirty bucks and is almsot back to $1900. The US dollar was lower and has dropped through the 90 level. The XAU climbed 5 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was good. Getting short term overbought for the gold shares but the longer term picture is now positive. I'll be looking to chase this move higher with the GDX January calls if we see some pullback in the coming sessions. I did cancel my open order for the GDX calls now as it will not get filled at my asking price. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for missing both the SPY December calls and the GDX trades. My thinking is that the consecutive losing trades that I had in November hindered me from trying anything in December. That is why the mental capital is always more important than anything monetary. Losing trades must be forgotten quickly but it is always easier said than done. Plenty of missed opportunities for me here lately but that will have to be put aside. The VIX was lower and the short term technical indicators have rolled over. It's pointing to the rally continuing. There's really nothing in the way of higher prices. Bullish sentiment is off the charts though and that is usually a sign of at least some sort of pause. The other normally reliable indicator that is flashing a sell signal appears to not be working this time around. It's been about a month and still no decline in stocks. The 75% accuracy rate did not come through this time around or so it seems. I'm still keeping an eye on it though. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how the December expiration goes tomorrow.

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