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Friday, December 04, 2020

The jobs report came in weaker than expected but the market didn't mind. The Dow gained 248 points on the continued heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. No overhead resistance for stocks as the major indexes again hit new all time highs. I keep wondering when it will end but probably should just enjoy the ride. Overbought and staying that way for longer than you think it can go on. I keep checking those SPY December puts but without a legitimate sell signal there is no point in trying that idea. Money just keeps pouring into equities with no end in sight. It will end though at some point. Two weeks to go in the December option cycle so there's plenty of time for a trade. GE was up another 1/4 and volume was better than average. Very overextended here as well. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. GDX is trying to hold its 50 week moving average at the 34 level. The weekly candlestick charts for the gold shares and the precious metals all show bullish candles for the past week. Perhaps if we get a retest of the recent lows another trade for the GDX January calls is warranted. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did come off of its best levels for the session. The 20 region seems to be the barrier here. Still overbought and staying that way, which makes sense with the rally that we've seen. Sentiment remains extremely bullish. The sell signal from one of the more reliable indicators is still out there but the timing is suspect. It can sometimes take a month for it to work but it does at least have a recent 75% success rate. That's why I wouldn't chase the rally here. There will probably be a better entry point as time goes by. I could be wrong and often am. Plenty of charts to check out over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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