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Monday, December 28, 2020

The stimulus deal has been signed and the market rallied. The Dow gained 204 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to make up its mind here on which way to go. The overall market was slightly better than the Dow. We had new all time highs for the Dow, NASDAQ and the S&P 500. No overhead resistance and the Santa Claus rally is in full swing. One less trading day this week. Volume should be lighter than usual with players taking an extended holiday. No SPY trades on tap at the moment but I'm looking both ways. GE was basically flat on light volume. Gold had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower. The futures dropped six bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. One day downside reversals in the gold shares as well. The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. My open order is still out there for the GDX January calls but I'll again have to reconsider this idea tonight. The price action today was pretty bearish with traders selling on the signing of the stimulus. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually up a touch today on a rally for stocks. That doesn't fit and could lead to a near term drop. Oversold on the VIX but not terribly so. I still think that stocks could just rally into the January expiration as there isn't anything in the way of higher prices right now. Seasonality is favorable and the S&P 500 is not completely overbought yet. We'll keep an eye on things as they develop and look for a decent SPY trade going forward. Europe and Asia were generally higher to begin the shortened trading week. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow.

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