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Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Some follow through downside for the Dow as it lost 222 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It was a sideways affair for the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ posted a gain. So a mixed bag to say the least. Getting to oversold on the short term technical indicators for the S&P. I think that we are about to head higher and will possibly reach new all time highs before the November option expiration. One of my medium term indicators is starting to flash a buy signal. This indicator gives signals that last for weeks not days. Unless things just completely fall apart here, the signal will prove to be valid. Now I have been bullish in the face of a two week decline. But I think we are simply in a pause before we start to move back up. GE was off 1/4 on good volume. The short term indicators have rolled over here. Gold finished up around $5 on the October futures. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX was up by 5/8. Volume remains very light for the gold shares. My GDX November calls are about where I bought them. Still oversold for GDX, so I'm hoping we are in the beginning of a sustained move higher. But I can't rule out more sideways price inactivity ahead of the US election. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and we are short term overbought. The VIX should turn around here and that would imply higher stock prices going forward. Perhaps the GDP report on Thursday will be a catalyst for some buying ahead of the election. The background remains the same with the pandemic virus and uncertainty around the election as the main concerns. A positive NASDAQ today is a plus for the bulls. I'm already in the trade that I was looking for so it's a watch and wait mode for now. I am considering getting some SPY calls but the premiums there remain elevated. Still plenty of time in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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