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Friday, October 30, 2020

Back to the downside as the Dow fell 157 points on very good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. We were off over 500 points but a last hour rally brought the most watched index back. Still short term oversold but it looks like the Dow is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is trying not to break the lows of September. The NASDAQ did lead the way lower and that is not a positive. Pandemic virus angst combined with election uncertainty has led to the current market environment. Some things should clear up by Wednesday morning. But just how the market reacts to the election results is anybodies guess. The oversold condition would normally lead you to purchase the SPY calls. However the fact that we've been oversold and are staying that way warrants keeping any possiblity out there. Caution is the word for now regarding the SPY. GE was up a few cents on good volume. Gold had a bounce as the futures rose about ten bucks. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was better than it's been. My GDX November calls are still losers, just not as much. The entry timing here was atrociuos however I think that I can cut the loss down. My open order for the lower strike price GDX November calls was not filled again. I'm leaving it out there but I don't think it will get filled. GDX has already begun to move higher and the short term indicators are turning back up. I'm now fairly confident that the calls here will prove to be the proper selection. However the ones that I have already purchased are so far out of the money that they won't prove to be capable of turning a profit. There are still three weeks to go in the November option cycle but the optimum time to purchase the calls was over the past two trading sessions. I was early. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I would like to get my order for the lower strike price GDX calls filled. I cannot let that affect what I'm doing though because there will be opportunities in the coming days. The recent volatility creates favorable circumstances for trades. The VIX closed much lower than where it opened and is still overbought. It opened above 40 and closed near 38. I think that it is forming a top here and that would lead to a rally in stocks. But everything that I've thought in the past two weeks or so has been off target. So I would take anything said here with a grain of salt. Markets can remain oversold for quite some time just like they can remain overbought. With the NASDAQ leading the way lower I'll say once again caution is advised. We should get some kind of resolution about future policy when the election results are in. How the market reacts to it is the question. We would only be guessing at the answer. I'll be double checking my work over the weekend to come up with a strategy for next week. Asia was down and Europe mixed to finish the week and the month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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