The market made a nice comeback in the final hour of the trading year and the Dow rose 76 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of being 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving up but the trend has lessened and is sideways in my view.  Another real positive advance/decline ratio may change that.  Today looks to me like front running what we expect to be a positive start to the new year on Thursday.  I'm still looking at the January SPY puts though.  I may get them before the end of the week.  I'm waiting for a new high with a lower RSI.  May or may not happen.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was good considering it's the end of the year.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar continued lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares are due for a rest.  I am still holding my GDX January calls.  If my market scenario of a drop in early January pans out, this trade should hold up.  If not, the gains will not be as good as they could be.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX rolled back down today and that is good news for the potential SPY January put trade.  A move back down to the 12 level here will help with the set up for a decline.  The market could just keep going up during the January option cycle as well.  As always timing of the entry will be important along with not getting greedy if this trade does come to pass.  I'd expect money and optimism to be prevalent on Thursday.  Where we go after that is the question.  No really important economic data due the rest of the week.  We will get the Fed minutes on Friday.  It is still a holiday mode mood on the street.  Europe and Asia were lower in what market that were open.  We'll ring in the new year tonight and get ready for Thursdays open.  Happy New Year everyone. 

A downer Monday as the Dow fell 183 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to go sideways.  Long overdue for some downside and we finally got some today.  My fear here is that I may have missed the chance for the SPY January outs if we simply continue to head lower.  We are still short term overbought on the major indices with plenty of room to drop on the indicators.  I won't chase things here because I am looking for a positive money flow start to the new year on Thursday.  However if that doesn't materialize, the down move will have been missed.  GE was off a dime on OK volume for the still holiday mode mood of the market.  Gold played catch up on the futures as it is now comfortably above the $1500 level.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX rose 5/8.  Volume was light.  Still pretty overbought for the gold shares but in rallies it stays that way.  My GDX January calls remain with a nice profit.  I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to this trade but I do have an objective in mind.  I usually sell to early when things get going so I'll hope I don't hold on too long this time around.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has already taken off which leads me to believe that I may have missed the short side boat here.  The signal that I got has proven to be correct so far.  If it is valid we've got a lot lower to go.  It seems to be the case at the moment.  The VIX did stop at its 200 day moving average.  Perhaps that will hold things here.  If we can get a small rally from here in stocks perhaps we'll get the negative RSI divergence that I'm looking for.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is out there.  We'll know what's going on as the week progresses.  End of the year tomorrow and I would expect a light volume session with perhaps some more selling.  Just a guess as usual.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll say goodbye to 2019 tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow added 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  I had an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I still like this idea but perhaps today was the day to purchase.  We still remain very overbought on all time frames.  I'll have to check things over again this weekend but I think that waiting to get the puts could be the right choice.  Ideally I'd like to purchase them the first trading day of the new year on strength.  But we all know that the market rarely cooperates.  GE lost a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still showing a profit.  Overbought now for the gold shares.  However if my prognosis for a decline is correct, the gold shares should rise on a flight to safety.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed today.  My hope is that the expected decline in the S&P isn't already underway.  You really can't read too much into what happens during a holiday week.  I'll expect most players to return at least by the beginning of the new year on Thursday.  Make no mistake about my position here.  I think that the upside is limited and that we will see a decent drop at the beginning of the new year.  Whether it occurs in the January or February option cycle is the question that needs to be answered.  I'm prepared to try either or both.  I'll go over all the charts this weekend and be ready to go on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Santa Claus rally is in full swing as the Dow gained 106 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Overbought to the extreme for the major stock indices.  I did place an order for the SPY January puts and I'm leaving it open overnight.  Going parabolic in the S&P at this point but you just don't know when it will end.  it always ends badly though.  I don't know how long this will last and I'll probably be early with the puts.  However I'm getting a solid sell signal from an indicator that usually works and doesn't give a signal that often.  That is why I'm confident that the SPY puts will work here and if not, then in the February option cycle.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold continues higher as the futures rose a dozen.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good.  Due for a rest now for gold and the gold shares.  My GDX January calls are showing a nice profit.  I do believe that there is further to go on the upside here in the next three weeks.  We'll see about that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume and higher prices as holiday mode on Wall Street is in session.  We're hitting new all time highs on a daily basis with seemingly nothing stopping the rally.  Perhaps we can continue higher into the beginning of the new year next week.  I'll all for trying the SPY January puts here but not exactly sure on the timing.  When things get like this, there is no telling how high we will go before reality sets in and the drop begins.  I'd like to somehow take advantage of that.  The light volume is another indicator of just how precarious this levitation is at this point.  So I'll leave in my open order for some puts and see what happens.  What was open in Europe and Asia was higher overnight.  We'll see how the week closes tomorrow.

Pretty much running in place in todays shortened trading session as the Dow fell 36 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  This is a tough week to make much sense of because a lot of players aren't going to the office.  Although I wanted to wait for a negative RSI divergence before attempting the SPY January puts, another signal that I'm looking at is flashing sell.  This signal has preceded at least twenty point moves lower for the SPY in the past.  It sometimes takes a while before the drop and other times it is right away.  So I'll most likely be looking to buy some puts on strength Thursday.  If we don't get a quick drop, I'll try this idea again in the February option cycle.  The S&P remains overbought both short and medium term.  GE was up a few cents on the same extremely light volume.  Gold found buyers as it is indeed breaking its down trend line from autumn.  The precious metal futures were up $15 and are just below $1500.  The US dollar was flat.  The XAU was up 3 1/3, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was very good for the shortened session.  My GDX January calls are showing a solid profit at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and oversold.  The ideal scenario for me here would be a lower VIX Thursday with a nice gain in SPY.  The market rarely cooperates.  Only four trading days left this year and I would expect more tax loss selling than anything else.  It is a holiday week with thin trading.  I suppose that I'll simply wait to see how we open on Thursday and go from there.  I think that the upside is now limited from here and that the odds favor lower prices in the month or two ahead.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher last night.  Merry Christmas everyone and we'll be back at it on Thursday.

The Dow tacked on another 96 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market didn't gain as much as the Dow.  overbought and overdue for some kind of pause in the rally.  I'm still interested in the SPY January puts as soon as I see a negative divergence in the SPY daily RSI.  The Santa Claus rally time period begins tomorrow.  Markets close early as well and don't reopen until Thursday.  It is holiday mode all week.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Gold rose $8 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU climbed 3 3/4, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  I noticed over the weekend that silver had just broken its declining tops line that began in early September.  Last night I noticed that gold was starting to move up and any gain today would break through its declining tops line as well.  I placed an open order for some GDX January calls and it somehow got filled early this morning.  It is showing a profit.  I am wary of this trade though because some of the individual gold stocks are extremely overbought.  The trade could work though if GDX can finally get past the 28 level.  The favorable seasonal factor could work in the trades favor as well.  But we all know markets go where they want and there is plenty of time left in the January option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and continues to be oversold.  The S&P 500 remains overbought both short and medium term.  The consensus now is fairly bullish and that's another reason that I'm looking at the SPY January puts here.  I may have to wait for the beginning of next year though before a signal is furnished.  Plus the idea could just be wrong as markets have a tendency to move higher than anyone thinks during sustained rallies like the one that we're in right now.  So we'll see what happens.  Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  Light volume shortened session due tomorrow.

The Dow closed the week with a gain of 74 points on extremely heavy expiration related volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Overbought and staying that way as we hit new all time highs on a daily basis now.  I don't know how much higher that we'll go here but I am content to wait for a sell signal at this point.  I'll continue to watch the indicator that has worked well in the past.  I'll also be on the lookout for a negative RSI divergence but we are not there yet.  GE was unchanged on heavy volume.  Gold was little changed but the US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was average.  I'm still waiting for GDX to get oversold on a daily basis and will probably go out to the February option cycle there.  Although I'm not exactly sure if that idea is going to be correct.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is in rally mode and the VIX is low.  Although the VIX remains oversold it doesn't mean that the rally in stocks is over.  Until we get some kind of sell signal the trend is up.  We now enter holiday mode for the market with Christmas in the middle of next week.  The Santa Claus rally time period begins on the 24th.  We should expect a flow of money into the market at the beginning of the year as well.  So I probably should at least wait until then to attempt the SPY puts.  For now it will be more going over the charts and trying to remain patient.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.

We got some upside today as the Dow rolled ahead 137 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines remain positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Money is looking for a place to go and stocks seem to be it.  No news to explain the rally except that Trump was impeached.  The market obviously doesn't care.  Plenty overbought here any way that you look at it.  I'm waiting for my sell signal to take hold and that may take some time.  Too late in my mind to try the SPY calls here.  In retrospect the December calls were the way to go.  Triple witching tomorrow and that should skew the volume higher.  Holiday mode after that.  GE was up a few cent and the volume was light.  Gold was up $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed as well on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and that condition could persist.  No overhead resistance for stocks and that's a plus for the bulls.  In rallies the overbought condition can last for quite a while.  That is the position that we find ourselves in today.  I do not expect a sell off with the holidays upon us but I could be wrong.  Business trading for the most part will finish for the year tomorrow as many players will be home for the holidays.  My hope is that things set up for a decline in the beginning of January, which would be the best possible scenario for my ideas.  The February option cycle has an extra month in it and that will make the SPY puts pricey if the signal sets up for that time frame.  We'll simply have to watch and wait.  Many of the negatives for the market are out of the way so we'll also have to see how high things can go here in the near term.  We haven't even reached the days for the Santa Claus rally yet which will begin on the 24th.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

More running in place today as the Dow fell 26 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  No news to speak of beyond the impeachment drama.  But this is already baked into the market in my humble opinion.  Everybody knows that it isn't going to lead to the dismissal of the president.  That's the consensus at least for now.  Still short term overbought for the major averages as we get through options expiration week.  I'm basically waiting to buy the SPY puts in the next couple of weeks.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume picked up a little.  Gold was little changed again and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX gained about 1/3.  Volume was light.  The technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range.  As much as I'd like to try the calls here, I really am trying to wait until things get solidly oversold.  That hasn't happened in quite a few weeks as the gold shares continue to languish in a trading range.  The seasonal pattern is for a rise now into January.  The trading is never easy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Very overbought on some of the indicators that I have for the S&P.  That doesn't mean a collapse is around the corner but the upside in the near term could be tough sledding.  The VIX remains oversold as well.  Once again I'm trying to be patient here as the holiday week coming up should be pretty uninspiring.  At least I have a couple of ideas in the works if things pan out according to plan.  I don't want to miss out on the gold shares but I must say that the fundamental picture there is lacking.  Still, gains into the new year cannot be ruled out.  I suppose I'll let this week pass and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see if the market has any response to the impending impeachment in tomorrows session.

A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow gained 29 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock averages.  I have decided that my next SPY trade will be the January or February puts.  One of the indicators that I follow is about to give a very reliable sell signal.  I am waiting for that to happen.  This indicator doesn't give a signal that often but it is very reliable.  Once the signal is triggered the market could fall immediately or take a short time for a top to form.  Either way if I attempt this idea and it doesn't work right away, I'll simply try it again.  So I'm being patient for now and watching how high we go before the indicator gives the signal.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter.  Gold finished little changed again and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm waiting for the gold shares to get oversold before trying the calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is oversold and starting to move sideways.  I'm guessing that it will remain in this condition for the rest of the month.  As I've already said, after this week the market will be in full holiday mode.  Especially with Christmas falling right in the middle of the week.  Most offices will have limited staff on hand until the new year.  Most trading business for 2019 will occur this week.  This will also be highlighted by the option expiration on Friday.  So for me it's a matter of being patient and waiting for the anticipated sell signal on the S&P 500.  That is the game plan for now.  Europe was mixed, with Asia higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Perhaps it was a delayed reaction to the US/China trade deal but the Dow rose 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The Dow was up 200 points during the session, so that got cut in half.  It's options expiration week ahead of a holiday week.  Any trading business that needs to be done will most likely happen in the next 4 days.  We are short term overbought but the overall market is much stronger than the Dow here and that's a plus.  New all time highs for many stock indices as there is no overhead resistance.  That doesn't mean that we'll simply go straight up but the path of least resistance is higher.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold was flat on the session, while the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU lost a point and GDX was down 1/3.  Volume was light.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling over here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back around 12 and getting oversold.  You've got to expect higher prices here as most of the uncertainty is now out of the way.  The market still has the impending impeachment to deal with but for now it seems like that will be a non event.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'm still considering the GDX calls if we roll over here but will most likely go out to the February option cycle if I do.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how tomorrow goes.

The trade deal is done for now but we didn't see much of a rally.  The Dow rose 3 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The market rallies, then sold off and finished about mid-range of the days movement.  We also got the election in England out of the way as well.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and we've got some potential negative divergences in place as well.  Just a week to go in The December option cycle.  Yes, I'd like to maybe try the SPY puts here but the lack of time remaining is a concern.  The market had every right to take off to the upside today but it didn't.  Perhaps shorting any strength on Monday is the way to go but I'll have to think about it over the weekend.  GE was down a dime on average volume.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures.  The US dollar continued lower which has been supportive of gold here.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Gold has held up well here and is a seasonal area of strength.  We are overbought on the gold shares though and although I'd like to try the GDX calls it's hard for me to do with the indicators at high levels.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Retail sales came in lighter than expected.  The VIX fell below the 50 day moving average and had decent drop.  However this did not translate into a rally for stocks.  Not sure what that means.  I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and decide what to do from there.  I do think that after next week the market will be in holiday mode for a couple of weeks.  That should slow down the volume and the volatility potential.  So maybe it's this week or nothing when it comes to the next trade.  However there are no clear trading signals, just leanings towards this way or that.  I'll have plenty of time in the next couple days to decide what to do or not do.  Unlike the US, Europe and Asia saw rallies to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

More talk of a US/China trade deal finally coming to fruition drove stocks higher today.  Of course it hasn't happened yet and we've heard all this before.  Nonetheless the Dow soared 220 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Any end to this long trade dispute would be a good thing, just to get some uncertainty out of the way.  Perhaps the tariff deadline of the 15th won't matter if something concrete is announced before the close tomorrow.  But that's a lot of ifs.  The major stock indices remain overbought but there is room to move a bit higher on the short term technical indicators.  Some of the major indexes also hit new all time highs today and that cannot be overlooked.  If we do see a deal perhaps we'll really get going to the upside with no overhead resistance to stop things.  So tomorrow will probably be pretty interesting one way or the other.  GE was up almost 1/2 and volume expanded.  Gold fell almost $10 on the futures but made up ground in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly lower, coming off of the worst levels for the session.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on OK volume.  The gold shares have held up rather well here but are overbought.  For some reason I'm still considering the GDX January calls if we get some more pullback there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators on the VIX have rolled over and the VIX itself is moving lower.  It closed right on the 50 day moving average.  If a deal is announced tonight, the VIX will continue back down towards its recent low at 12.  That would produce a pretty good rally in stocks if that were to occur.  Hasn't happened yet.  Once this US/China tiff gets over with for now the next focus for the markets will be what?  Impeachment?  Interest rates?  Coming earnings?  There's always plenty of questions without simple answers in this game.  Six days to go in the December option cycle.  I'll probably have to pass on trading the SPY options here.  Perhaps I'll go out to February with the GDX call idea but that doesn't really match up with the seasonal rally that I'm expecting here.  I'll ponder this idea later tonight.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see if this trade deal actually gets done tonight and take it from there.

The Fed did nothing as expected and the Dow rose 29 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grudgingly moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  With the Fed out of he way we'll look to some news on the December 15th tariff deadline.  The problem there is that we may not hear anything until the weekend when the markets are closed.  We're still overbought for most for the major stock indices.  I don't have any S&P trades in mind at the moment.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold rallied today and gained almost $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 2 3/4, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed the GDX January call trade yet again.  Not completely overbought now for the gold shares, so there's probably more room to go higher.  I may chase this trade yet but the ideal time once again has passed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators on the VIX are rolling back over.  This would imply that we will see higher prices in the near future and likely new all time highs yet again.  The strength of the overall market today vs. the Dow basically says the same.  So my guess is that we'll get good news on the tariff front eventually and the market will rally on that.  We also have an election in England tonight that could affect the Brexit saga.  However this drama has been going on for years now and it doesn't really seem to be affecting the market in the US.  Not yet at least.  Retail sales data on Friday could be a mover but we've always got the 15th in the background.  We are in a favorable seasonal period for stocks so any decline should be short lived.  As we saw last week.  My thesis of a possible decline in the beginning of December has not panned out.  My trading plans and ideas haven't been up to snuff for a while.  That needs to change.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll see how things go tonight.     

Lower again today on the Fed waiting game.  The Dow lost 27 points on about average volume.  the advance/declines were just about even again.  The summation index is moving sideways now.  The market appears stalled now, waiting for the next catalyst.  Will it be the Fed tomorrow that gets things going?  Something new from the US/China trade war?  We've still got the deadline of the 15th looming in the background.  I'm not sure what to do here with regards to the SPY.  More overbought than oversold here.  Perhaps the sidelines is the place for me but I've been there for quite some time already.  Still a week and a half in the December option cycle.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold gained a few bucks while the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up almost a point and GDX was up almost 1/4.  Volume was light.  The technical indicators now a mid-range for the gold shares.  I'm still looking at the GDX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Considering there isn't anything expected from the Fed, the market is acting pretty sluggish.  Perhaps the impending impeachment and trade deadline are the cause.  We are still just about to make new all times highs again if we can get some sort of rally.  We had a weird end of the day sell off today as well but the market came back from it in the final 5 minutes.  I guess we'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow and go from there.  I was hoping that GDX would head down to the 26 level again before I attempt to buy the calls there again.  But the Bollinger bands are contracting, with the lower band now above the 26 level.  My thinking is that the GDX calls will be my next trade.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A lower start to the trading week as the Dow fell 105 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is trending up for now but not decidedly so.  The S&P has stalled right below new all time highs.  We could simply be waiting on the Fed announcement that occurs on Wednesday.  However nothing is expected out of that meeting, with rates to be unchanged according to most everyone.  I'm thinking that the lack of decent volume today suggests that there won't be a lot of downside here.  We are still at the mercy of the next headline though.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed as well on very light volume.  I'm still considering the January calls here as well as February now.  If GDX heads towards the 26 level I'll be inclined to give this idea another chance.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up today despite not much of a loss for the major averages.  I'm not exactly sure what that means but it would help with my set up for new all time highs this week if we don't drop from here.  You can make a bearish case here too, with a negative divergence in the daily RSI for the S&P.  But that is just a potential outcome for now.  We'll get inflation and retail sales data this week but I think that the most important thing coming up for the market is December 15th and the tariff question.  Any kind of deal or delay should propel prices higher.  With the opposite happening if the tariffs take effect.  It is a dangerous game to play if you are on the wrong side of the outcome.  Hopefully it gets solved before the weekend.  The market also has to deal with the impending impeachment of Trump but that doesn't seem to be an issue for stocks at the moment.  Subject to change as we move forward of course.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The market powered higher today sparked by the good jobs numbers and the Dow climbed 337 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will stop the summation index from moving lower but not exactly putting it back in an uptrend yet.  It has turned the short term technical indicators back up though on the daily charts of the major stock indices.  It has been quite a turnaround from the negative way that we started the week.  We do remain at the mercy of the next trade headline.  December 15th looms as the next important date as more tariffs are supposed to take effect.  If an agreement is reached beforehand you can expect more upside.  If not, then the opposite will probably occur.  Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle.  GE was up over 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold took a hit and the futures fell over $15.  The US dollar rose a bit.  The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have now rolled over here.  I'm thankful that I did not chase the gold shares this week.  If GDX makes it back towards the 26 level, I may still try the January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  New all time highs back in the picture for next week?  It appears to be heading that way.  There's also the potential for some negative divergences to show up as well.  The VIX has turned around and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  But there's also still the chance that anything can happen when it comes to the geo-political trade war nonsense that we're in at the moment.  I'll continue to check the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Pretty much a day on hold as we bounced around and ended up with the Dow ahead by 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  There's still plenty of geo-political turmoil in the background as the market decides what to do next.  We'll get the jobs data tomorrow and that should move things early.  But we are still at the mercy and risk of the next headline and that could drive things either way.  I was thinking that we should test the lows of this week but if we rally tomorrow that probably won't happen.  I considered purchasing the SPY December calls today but didn't.  GE was off a dime and the volume was light.  oversold on the short term here.  Gold was up a buck or so as the US dollar continued to sell off.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains again on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators on the VIX are about halfway so we don't have a clear picture there.  If we rally tomorrow I think you can say that the decline is over.  I'll err on the side of caution and stay on the sidelines for now.  However if we do rally tomorrow you can look back at this week as the opportunity to get long the December cycle.  Hasn't happened yet and it may not.  We also have to keep in mind the December 15th date as the next round of China tariffs is due.  If a deal is struck before then, expect the market to approve of that.  If not perhaps the SPY December puts will be back in vogue.  But lets get through the employment report first.  Asia was up, with Europe generally lower.  We'll check out the jobs numbers and finish the trading week tomorrow.

We got a bounce back today as the Dow rose 147 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but another day like today could change that.  I don't think that the decline is over but I could be wrong there.  The technical indicators for the major averages are more oversold now but not completely so.  Perhaps some more selling back to yesterdays lows will set us up for something more sustainable to the upside.  We're at the constant mercy of the next tweet or headline and that is a tough way to go.  With plenty of time left in the December option cycle, I'm inclined to take it slow for now.  GE was off about a dime and the volume was lower.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I did place an order for the GDX January calls again but canceled it at the close.  We had a pretty bearish reversal in silver today and that is a concern for the bulls in precious metals I think.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX fell dramatically today after yesterdays ramp up.  It doesn't mean that the decline has ended but it probably means that we won't just be headed straight down.  I do think that we'll be setting up nicely for a Santa Claus rally if we continue to drift lower now into the expiration in a couple of weeks.  That's a guess as usual.  I would think that tomorrow would be a waiting game on the jobs report Friday, barring some unforeseen overnight headline.  So for now more patience on the next trade is required.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The Dow was off around 450 points early on so we came back from that.  But with the indicators pointing down and not oversold yet the path of least resistance is lower.  Perhaps we'll make it back down to the break out point of 3025.  If so, we'll take a look at the SPY calls there.  I do think that it's too late for the December puts now.  Another missed opportunity but we'll have to see how things go from here.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Already oversold here.  Gold spiked higher with the futures gaining $15.  The US dollar was lower again.  The XAU was up almost two points, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was heavy and we broke the declining tops line for GDX that began in September.  I will now have to consider chasing this move higher despite the overbought condition.  If we're lucky we'll get a move back to the break out point.  I also noticed higher volume in the GDX calls yesterday that resulted in expanding open interest today.  So players are getting behind this move higher.  But make no mistake, I've missed the best entry point for this attempted trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up to 18 today and finished well off of that.  It got overbought in a hurry that past couple of days.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it may not be one that lasts too long.  A positive headline will turn things around in a hurry.  That doesn't mean we're about to get one though.  If we continue weaker for the next couple of sessions, I may try the SPY December calls ahead of the jobs report on Friday.  But we'll have to see how the next couple of days pan out.  It has been a rough start to the month for the bulls but not entirely unexpected.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got some actual selling to begin the month of December as the Dow fell 268 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  Tariff man Trump was back at it, this time for South America.  The market did not like what it heard.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock averages.  It is probably too late for the SPY December puts but if we get some kind of snap back to the upside in the next couple of days there may be a chance.  Todays volume tells us that there is more room to go lower.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was off a few bucks while the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Overbought now for some of the gold share indices indicators.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls but cannot chase that trade here.  The Bollinger bands for gold and the gold shares are getting very tight so  big move is coming here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today looks like it is the beginning of the December decline that we were looking for.  That may set things up for the January calls though.  The VIX had a big move and is getting overbought in a hurry.  I guess I'll give it a couple of days and go from there.  We do have the employment report due out on Friday.  There is also plenty of time in the December option cycle to put on a trade.  It is a rough start to the month for the bulls though.  Plus it also reminds us that we are at the mercy of the next headline wherever it comes from.  However technically speaking the indicators have now rolled over and there is room for more decline in them.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires with overseas trading tonight.