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Friday, December 27, 2019

A mixed bag today as the Dow added 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  I had an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I still like this idea but perhaps today was the day to purchase.  We still remain very overbought on all time frames.  I'll have to check things over again this weekend but I think that waiting to get the puts could be the right choice.  Ideally I'd like to purchase them the first trading day of the new year on strength.  But we all know that the market rarely cooperates.  GE lost a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still showing a profit.  Overbought now for the gold shares.  However if my prognosis for a decline is correct, the gold shares should rise on a flight to safety.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed today.  My hope is that the expected decline in the S&P isn't already underway.  You really can't read too much into what happens during a holiday week.  I'll expect most players to return at least by the beginning of the new year on Thursday.  Make no mistake about my position here.  I think that the upside is limited and that we will see a decent drop at the beginning of the new year.  Whether it occurs in the January or February option cycle is the question that needs to be answered.  I'm prepared to try either or both.  I'll go over all the charts this weekend and be ready to go on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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