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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

The Fed did nothing as expected and the Dow rose 29 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grudgingly moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  With the Fed out of he way we'll look to some news on the December 15th tariff deadline.  The problem there is that we may not hear anything until the weekend when the markets are closed.  We're still overbought for most for the major stock indices.  I don't have any S&P trades in mind at the moment.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold rallied today and gained almost $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 2 3/4, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed the GDX January call trade yet again.  Not completely overbought now for the gold shares, so there's probably more room to go higher.  I may chase this trade yet but the ideal time once again has passed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators on the VIX are rolling back over.  This would imply that we will see higher prices in the near future and likely new all time highs yet again.  The strength of the overall market today vs. the Dow basically says the same.  So my guess is that we'll get good news on the tariff front eventually and the market will rally on that.  We also have an election in England tonight that could affect the Brexit saga.  However this drama has been going on for years now and it doesn't really seem to be affecting the market in the US.  Not yet at least.  Retail sales data on Friday could be a mover but we've always got the 15th in the background.  We are in a favorable seasonal period for stocks so any decline should be short lived.  As we saw last week.  My thesis of a possible decline in the beginning of December has not panned out.  My trading plans and ideas haven't been up to snuff for a while.  That needs to change.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll see how things go tonight.     

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