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Monday, December 02, 2019

We got some actual selling to begin the month of December as the Dow fell 268 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  Tariff man Trump was back at it, this time for South America.  The market did not like what it heard.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock averages.  It is probably too late for the SPY December puts but if we get some kind of snap back to the upside in the next couple of days there may be a chance.  Todays volume tells us that there is more room to go lower.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was off a few bucks while the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Overbought now for some of the gold share indices indicators.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls but cannot chase that trade here.  The Bollinger bands for gold and the gold shares are getting very tight so  big move is coming here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today looks like it is the beginning of the December decline that we were looking for.  That may set things up for the January calls though.  The VIX had a big move and is getting overbought in a hurry.  I guess I'll give it a couple of days and go from there.  We do have the employment report due out on Friday.  There is also plenty of time in the December option cycle to put on a trade.  It is a rough start to the month for the bulls though.  Plus it also reminds us that we are at the mercy of the next headline wherever it comes from.  However technically speaking the indicators have now rolled over and there is room for more decline in them.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires with overseas trading tonight.

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