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Tuesday, December 31, 2019

The market made a nice comeback in the final hour of the trading year and the Dow rose 76 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of being 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving up but the trend has lessened and is sideways in my view.  Another real positive advance/decline ratio may change that.  Today looks to me like front running what we expect to be a positive start to the new year on Thursday.  I'm still looking at the January SPY puts though.  I may get them before the end of the week.  I'm waiting for a new high with a lower RSI.  May or may not happen.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was good considering it's the end of the year.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar continued lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares are due for a rest.  I am still holding my GDX January calls.  If my market scenario of a drop in early January pans out, this trade should hold up.  If not, the gains will not be as good as they could be.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX rolled back down today and that is good news for the potential SPY January put trade.  A move back down to the 12 level here will help with the set up for a decline.  The market could just keep going up during the January option cycle as well.  As always timing of the entry will be important along with not getting greedy if this trade does come to pass.  I'd expect money and optimism to be prevalent on Thursday.  Where we go after that is the question.  No really important economic data due the rest of the week.  We will get the Fed minutes on Friday.  It is still a holiday mode mood on the street.  Europe and Asia were lower in what market that were open.  We'll ring in the new year tonight and get ready for Thursdays open.  Happy New Year everyone. 

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