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Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Pretty much running in place in todays shortened trading session as the Dow fell 36 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  This is a tough week to make much sense of because a lot of players aren't going to the office.  Although I wanted to wait for a negative RSI divergence before attempting the SPY January puts, another signal that I'm looking at is flashing sell.  This signal has preceded at least twenty point moves lower for the SPY in the past.  It sometimes takes a while before the drop and other times it is right away.  So I'll most likely be looking to buy some puts on strength Thursday.  If we don't get a quick drop, I'll try this idea again in the February option cycle.  The S&P remains overbought both short and medium term.  GE was up a few cents on the same extremely light volume.  Gold found buyers as it is indeed breaking its down trend line from autumn.  The precious metal futures were up $15 and are just below $1500.  The US dollar was flat.  The XAU was up 3 1/3, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was very good for the shortened session.  My GDX January calls are showing a solid profit at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and oversold.  The ideal scenario for me here would be a lower VIX Thursday with a nice gain in SPY.  The market rarely cooperates.  Only four trading days left this year and I would expect more tax loss selling than anything else.  It is a holiday week with thin trading.  I suppose that I'll simply wait to see how we open on Thursday and go from there.  I think that the upside is now limited from here and that the odds favor lower prices in the month or two ahead.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher last night.  Merry Christmas everyone and we'll be back at it on Thursday.

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