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Friday, December 20, 2019

The Dow closed the week with a gain of 74 points on extremely heavy expiration related volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Overbought and staying that way as we hit new all time highs on a daily basis now.  I don't know how much higher that we'll go here but I am content to wait for a sell signal at this point.  I'll continue to watch the indicator that has worked well in the past.  I'll also be on the lookout for a negative RSI divergence but we are not there yet.  GE was unchanged on heavy volume.  Gold was little changed but the US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was average.  I'm still waiting for GDX to get oversold on a daily basis and will probably go out to the February option cycle there.  Although I'm not exactly sure if that idea is going to be correct.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is in rally mode and the VIX is low.  Although the VIX remains oversold it doesn't mean that the rally in stocks is over.  Until we get some kind of sell signal the trend is up.  We now enter holiday mode for the market with Christmas in the middle of next week.  The Santa Claus rally time period begins on the 24th.  We should expect a flow of money into the market at the beginning of the year as well.  So I probably should at least wait until then to attempt the SPY puts.  For now it will be more going over the charts and trying to remain patient.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.

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