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Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The Dow was off around 450 points early on so we came back from that.  But with the indicators pointing down and not oversold yet the path of least resistance is lower.  Perhaps we'll make it back down to the break out point of 3025.  If so, we'll take a look at the SPY calls there.  I do think that it's too late for the December puts now.  Another missed opportunity but we'll have to see how things go from here.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Already oversold here.  Gold spiked higher with the futures gaining $15.  The US dollar was lower again.  The XAU was up almost two points, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was heavy and we broke the declining tops line for GDX that began in September.  I will now have to consider chasing this move higher despite the overbought condition.  If we're lucky we'll get a move back to the break out point.  I also noticed higher volume in the GDX calls yesterday that resulted in expanding open interest today.  So players are getting behind this move higher.  But make no mistake, I've missed the best entry point for this attempted trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up to 18 today and finished well off of that.  It got overbought in a hurry that past couple of days.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it may not be one that lasts too long.  A positive headline will turn things around in a hurry.  That doesn't mean we're about to get one though.  If we continue weaker for the next couple of sessions, I may try the SPY December calls ahead of the jobs report on Friday.  But we'll have to see how the next couple of days pan out.  It has been a rough start to the month for the bulls but not entirely unexpected.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.