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Monday, December 09, 2019

A lower start to the trading week as the Dow fell 105 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is trending up for now but not decidedly so.  The S&P has stalled right below new all time highs.  We could simply be waiting on the Fed announcement that occurs on Wednesday.  However nothing is expected out of that meeting, with rates to be unchanged according to most everyone.  I'm thinking that the lack of decent volume today suggests that there won't be a lot of downside here.  We are still at the mercy of the next headline though.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed as well on very light volume.  I'm still considering the January calls here as well as February now.  If GDX heads towards the 26 level I'll be inclined to give this idea another chance.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up today despite not much of a loss for the major averages.  I'm not exactly sure what that means but it would help with my set up for new all time highs this week if we don't drop from here.  You can make a bearish case here too, with a negative divergence in the daily RSI for the S&P.  But that is just a potential outcome for now.  We'll get inflation and retail sales data this week but I think that the most important thing coming up for the market is December 15th and the tariff question.  Any kind of deal or delay should propel prices higher.  With the opposite happening if the tariffs take effect.  It is a dangerous game to play if you are on the wrong side of the outcome.  Hopefully it gets solved before the weekend.  The market also has to deal with the impending impeachment of Trump but that doesn't seem to be an issue for stocks at the moment.  Subject to change as we move forward of course.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

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