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Tuesday, April 09, 2019

Got the downside we were looking for today as the Dow dropped 190 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways for now.  We were overbought with a light volume rally so the move lower is not unexpected.  We have now rolled over the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices but we're still overbought.  The small stocks didn't do as bad except for RUT.  The question is now where do we try and purchase the SPY April calls before expiration?  I did place an open order for the SPY April puts last night but it wasn't filled.  We opened with a gap down on the SPY, making the optimum buy time for the puts at the close yesterday.  I obviously didn't see that.  GE dropped 1/4 on good volume.  Some downside follow through there.  Gold added $6 on the futures.  The US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Waiting patiently to get the GDX calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose now my next trading attempt will be the SPY April calls before next weeks expiration.  Next week will be a day short with a holiday on Friday.  Bank earnings will be due on Friday so if I try this idea the purchase will have to be in the next two sessions.  If we continue lower tomorrow and the next day, that would be the ideal situation.  But we all know that the market rarely cooperates with what we want.  Right now my thinking is to let tomorrow pass and try the calls at some point on Thursday.  But I could also scuttle this trade as well depending on what happens between now and then.  Volume has been really light lately and that isn't a bullish development.  There's also a potential large double top on the SPY weekly chart.  However I'm more inclined to think that we are going to hit new all time highs soon and continue upwards to form a potential bearish huge megaphone pattern.  Just a guess as always.  Asia was slightly higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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