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Thursday, April 04, 2019

The Dow rose 166 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The broader market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a loss on the session.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted but we'll see where we go tomorrow after the jobs report.  I could make a case here for trying the SPY April puts but I did not purchase any.  If I did it would strictly have to be short term because I'm a believer in higher prices going forward into the option expiration on the 18th.  We've seen this picture before.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as it opened lower and closed higher along with the gold shares.  The US dollar was lower today.  The gold shares had a one day reversal to the upside.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was average.  I did place an open order for the GDX April calls overnight.  I was looking things over last night and decided that the gold shares could indeed rise from here.  There was no follow through on the trend line break.  Unfortunately my order wasn't filled as the price of the option have more than doubled in a day.  Just another missed opportunity.  However if we get back below 22 again, I'll head out to the GDX May calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought for the major averages.  I am thinking about fading any strength possibly tomorrow for a short term SPY put trade.  But we know that overbought markets can continue to stay that way.  I can make a technical case for the idea but I'm not sure if it's prudent to do so.  I guess I'll keep an eye on the reaction to the employment report and decide from there.  I'm certainly not pleased on missing the gold share call trade but what can you do?  Perhaps If had been paying better attention I would have seen it before last night.  All you can do is keep on going.  As they say, missed money is better than losing money.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see if we get any fireworks out of the jobs report and finish out the week tomorrow.

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