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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

A day of bouncing around for the major stock averages as the Dow finished with a gain of 68 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is starting to track sideways.  We had a gap up at the open, then spent the rest of the day selling off before a pop up in the final half hour.  I'm not sure what to make of todays price action as we are not seeing the usual positive expiration week bias.  Perhaps the short trading week has something to do with that.  However we are still short term overbought and remain in that technical condition.  With only two days left in the April option cycle, there won't be any SPY trades for me here.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold sold off today as the futures lost $13 and closed below the important level of $1280.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was shy of average.  I did place an order for the GDX May calls overnight.  I canceled it this morning but then replaced it and it got filled.  I think that may have been a mistake because I could be early on this trade.  We did get back below 22 on GDX but we may have to get down to 21.5 before support kicks in.  Tomorrow may tell the story here because if we do continue lower my fears will be realized.  However if we stay in the channel that is in place at the moment, GDX should rise tomorrow.  But the break below $1280 on gold could be telling although silver did not follow lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm in the next trade and there's plenty of time for it to work if the timing is correct.  That's a big if as usual.  The stock indices continue to trend sideways for the past few trading sessions.  My thesis of new all time highs for the S&P 500 has been put on hold for now.  The VIX continues lower and the risk of a huge sell off here is minimal in my view.  It appears that this week is a yawner and things should pick up after the holiday weekend.  Of course that could all change tomorrow but the trading appears muted at best here.  Europe and Asia markets were both higher overnight as money continues to flow in to stocks around the globe.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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