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Friday, April 05, 2019

Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The jobs report was a bit better than expected but you get the feeling here that the market will rally no matter what.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Overbought, staying that way and I did not get any SPY puts today.  I am thinking about it for sometime next week but it would certainly be bucking the trend.  Long rallies are highlighted by an extended short term overbought market condition.  That is what we're seeing now.  I'm not sure what will derail things as this point.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The beat goes on.  The VIX continues lower as volatility has taken a holiday.  There's no overhead resistance for the S&P 500 until we get to the old all time highs.  At the rate we are going we should set a new all time high before the April option expiration on the 18th.  The only caveat that I see is the low volume heading up here.  But we could get a burst of buying through the old highs on good volume and that would take care of that.  Just a guess on my part as the market will go and do what it wants.  I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and see if trying the SPY puts is even a viable idea.  I'm still looking at the GDX calls if we get back below the 22 level.  Probably out to the May options there if there's a trade.  I'm not sure that there's anything to derail the market here unless something comes out of left field from the US/China talks.  But these talks have been going on for what seems like forever at this point.  Asia was mixed with some markets closed.  Europe was up.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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