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Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Earnings drove things higher today as the Dow gained 145 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  We're approaching new all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  Still short term overbought for the major indices but that hasn't mattered.  RUT had a nice bounce up today as well.  The VIX remains low around the 12 level.  We are still going to go higher in my view.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX MAY calls are in the red.  I do think that tomorrow will tell the story for this trade.  If GDX does not move up from here, the trade is dead.  The daily candlestick chart has a possible star pattern if GDX can move up tomorrow.  That would be a positive sign and make today as the best buy date for that trade.  If we simply continue to move lower, that would be a strong negative.  GDX is very oversold and we're at the point of multiple support lines.  It's now or never for this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The recent sideways price movement for stocks appears to be breaking out to the upside.  That's a plus.  If we continue higher from here there is no overhead resistance.  The rally could really gain some steam if we can get the McClellan oscillator back to the plus side.  Hasn't happened yet but the potential is there.  We are getting near the end of the positive seasonality for stocks and that should be taken into consideration as well.  Perhaps we'll get an earnings blow off top before some actual sustained selling.  But that's just a random thought of mine, not a prediction.  For now we'll look for new all time highs and see where it goes from there.  I'll be keeping a close eye on GDX tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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