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Thursday, April 18, 2019

We finished the trading week with a gain of 110 points for the Dow on about average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the small stocks barely moving.  We're still short term overbought.  The market has basically been moving sideways for the past couple of weeks.  The VIX remains low.  I think the market is trying to figure out if it's going to roll over or burst out to new all time highs for the S&P.  I'm in the latter camp as the seasonality favors more gains.  Not to mention that we've had plenty of chances to drop in the past couple of weeks but it just hasn't happened.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was flat but the US dollar had a pretty good gain on the day.  The XAU fell another point, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume remains a bit above average to the downside.  My GDX May calls are losers and that was figured out soon after I bought them.  Oversold here still and no moving up and that's bearish.  I do still like this idea though and will move to a lower strike price and try again next week.  That is the game plan at the moment.  We did break the 21.5 support today for GDX.  However there is major support at the 21 level from the 50 and 200 day moving averages combined with the up trend lines from the middle of last year on a closing and intra-day basis.  Now if we simply bust through 21, all bets are off and the decline will be much lower.  I'm willing to take another shot at the calls at 21.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted with outside of the market events taking up space in my mind.  Nothing serious but still some distractions.  So I'm in another losing trade but there isn't much money in it so it isn't that painful.  But it's looking like a loss anyway.  Perhaps the gold shares are not where I should be looking but the technicals do say to take a look at the long side here.  We'll have to see how things go next week.  The technical indicators have rolled over for RUT and that could be a problem for the overall market because RUT is usually a leader.  But things could turn around there too.  The market always goes where it wants to.  There's an extra day off this weekend and I think I'll take a break from things for a couple of days and then decide what to do next week.  Earnings really haven't moved things yet but that could change.  The noise out of Washington today was a non market event again.  Asia was lower and Europe was higher overnight.  It's Thursday afternoon and time to take a break.

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