Drifting around and getting nowhere today as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  The small stocks remain strong and it appears that higher prices are in the wings.  We're still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  My SPY September puts are in the red.  I do think that I'll be stopped out on Tuesday morning barring some negative headline over the long holiday weekend.  Volume should picks up next week with everyone back at their desks.  If it doesn't, then I'd start to worry about the duration of this breakout.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was flat while the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares remain unloved.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was quite a positive month in August for stocks as we roll into September.  We've broken out on the S&P 500 and there is no overhead resistance.  The market is overbought but during rallies it simply stays that way.  That's what we've seen here lately.  I've tried the SPY puts again but my entry timing was off and this trade doesn't look like it will pan out either.  We'll see what comes out of the weekend but I don't expect much.  There will be economic data to trade off of next week including the jobs report on Friday.  Right now the market has the look and feel of something that wants to go higher.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the month overseas.  It's a long holiday weekend here in the US and the unofficial end of summer.  I'll check the charts over the weekend but it appears for now that we're in rally mode until proven otherwise.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower on trade concerns today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading up.  More tariff noise out of the white house today and that sent stocks lower.  The small stocks held up rather well though, so that tells me that this decline shouldn't last long.  The VIX spiked higher but it probably won't last.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are still overbought.  My SPY September puts are still showing a loss.  The timing there on the entry was off by a couple of days.  GE lost 20 cents on light volume.  Gold dropped five bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One more trading day for the month of August and it's the last day of summer vacation for players as well.  We should be back at full strength on Tuesday as Monday is the Labor day holiday.  The market is still in rally mode but I would suggest that it needs a rest.  We're back at the mercy of headline risk.  Today was simply another quiet summer day until something came out of Washington about the tariffs again.  The market has been able to ignore this kind of news all summer.  I would not expect that to change.  Overbought, staying that way and I don't see any substantial decline coming until the technical indicators roll over.  The small stocks continue to act well and that is a positive.  When we see RUT and the NASDAQ start to drop, then we'll get an actual decline.  Until then the trend is up.  We did get a light volume breakout to new all time highs.  We'll see if it holds going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll finish up the month of August tomorrow.     

It is simply up, up and away for stocks as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  There is no overhead resistance.  The small stocks are leading the way.  It is about as bullish as it gets.  I'm about to be stopped out of my SPY September puts.  Technically short term overbought and staying that way.  The VIX remains in the 12's.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar were slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares continue to disappoint.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are no sellers.  We've broken out to the upside in the S&P 500 and despite the light volume we continue to advance.  My original theory of a five wave pattern being completed here was wrong.  Hence the many losses that I've taken on the way back up.  It's basically back to the drawing board now for me.  Most likely when I'm stopped out of the current trade I'll be heading for the sidelines for a while to regroup.  There's been too many losses without a winning trade for months.  It's time to step back and reassess what's going on here.  Of the major stock averages only the Dow and the NYA haven't hit new all time highs.  That should occur for both in the coming weeks.  The usual negative seasonal factor for the stock market is not showing up.  Kind of like the bullish seasonal for gold that didn't materialize.  However you've got to keep moving on in the game.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the nighttime developments.

It was a quiet day of just hanging around as the Dow rose 14 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move higher.  We had a gap up open but then traded sideways for the rest of the session.  No market moving news to speak of and the market has returned to summer mode.  The volume is light, all the players aren't at their desks and we'll see what happens when we get past Labor day.  My SPY September puts are showing a slight loss.  The stop loss order is in.  GE lost a penny on average volume.  Gold fell eight bucks.  The US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We remain short term overbought on the major stock indices and at record highs for some.  There is no overhead resistance.  Perhaps attempting the SPY puts here isn't the right strategy but we will not remain overbought forever.  Also even though it is summer, the light volume breakout here may not be sustainable.  That's just a guess.  The overbought condition is not.  I'm hoping that the trade I've taken doesn't get stopped out this week and then we'll see what happens in September.  Europe and Asia were mixed to lower.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Powering higher to begin the week as a supposed trade deal with Mexico spurred buying interest.  The Dow soared 259 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  There is no overhead resistance and sellers have disappeared for now.  The usual seasonal weakness is not here.  I dumped the SPY September puts that I bought on Friday for a 33% loss.  Even though there is plenty of time for this trade I decided to sell out of that and repurchase the puts at a higher strike price which I did.  That trade is showing a slight loss and this trade I will hold on to for a while unless we simply get a parabolic rise from here.  That is a possibility despite that fact that we're overbought and staying that way.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  It look like a bottom has been put in here.  Gold rose a few bucks as the US dollar is dropping.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  This look like an oversold bounce as the gold shares got crushed in the preceding weeks.  I did sell the GDX September calls that I held but it was mostly symbolic.  The loss here was 99.9%.  I basically just got this trade on the books to register the loss and move on.  The mistake of not putting on a stop loss was evident here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is acting like it wants to take off to the moon here so we'll have to see how the month finishes out.  Perhaps trying the puts again is the wrong strategy but some of the technical indicators are saying that we've reached at least a short term top.  Not a lot of economic data out this week and it is still summer vacation for most.  So I think I'll hold on to this position and let this week pass from here.  We'll see if we get the expected follow through upside tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 133 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We finally closed at a new record high for the S&P 500.  It looks like there will be even higher prices coming up as well.  The VIX is at 12 and the RUT set another record today as well.  My open order for the SPY September puts was filled.  I may be a bit early on this trade.  It is showing a slight loss.  We are short term overbought on the major stock indices but in up trends it stays that way.  The volume has also been pretty light but it is the last couple of weeks of summer.  That said there is plenty of time for this trade to pan out at a profit since there's an extra week in the September option cycle.  GE was off a few cents and the volume's light.  Gold came to life today as politicians are trying to talk down the dollar.  The precious metal futures rose almost twenty bucks with the dollar heading lower.  The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  It still didn't help my GDX September calls.  They're still dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks continue to move higher and it looks like clear sailing from here in the short term.  Supposed bad news is being shrugged off and any selling is met with buying.  Could it be that the usual seasonal weakness for stocks won't show up this year as the usual seasonal strength for gold didn't happen?  It certainly appears that way at the moment.  I'll put in my stop loss order for this SPY September put trade and go from there.  I'd expect next week to be a light volume affair like this week as it's the last hurrah of summer.  Not much else to do now except check the charts over the weekend and wait for the open on Monday.  Unless we get some headline out of the blue, expect higher prices next week.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher to close out the trading week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving lower on the Dow as it fell 76 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Not much direction here for the market as the volume is so light it's hard to read anything into what is going on.  The overall market is holding up better than the Dow but the short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY September puts.  The VIX is in the 12's and the players are out on vacation.  With the extra week on the September option cycle, there really isn't a rush to put any kind of trade on.  GE gained a few cents and the volume's light.  Gold fell $11 on the futures as the US dollar moved up.  The XAU dropped 2 1/8 while GDX shed almost 1/3.  It appears that there is no hope for gold and the gold shares.  The usual positive seasonality is not showing up this year.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are holding up better here but without any volume it's hard to say what is exactly going on.  The market appeared to be heading to new all time highs this week but now looks to be getting tired.  The fact the RUT broke to new all time highs is bullish.  Perhaps we'll trend sideways for a while before attempting new all time highs for the S&P 500 again.  That's just a guess as usual.  It's still a watch and wait period for now.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what the Fed head has to say tomorrow and close out the summer trading week.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 88 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  The Dow was weaker than the overall market, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  Headline risk has returned but the market just shrugged it off today.  This is a market that seems to want to go higher.  We're still short term overbought on the major indices but that doesn't matter in rallies.  RUT was higher today and the VIX turned back down.  I'm expecting more upside in the next couple of days.  GE lost over 1/8 but the volume was lighter than yesterday.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar dropped slightly today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains again on very light volume.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Friends of Trump were being convicted yesterday after the bell and the futures had a good drop.  But the market came all the way back today before drifting lower into the close.  The market is ignoring much of the bad news that is appearing lately.  That is usually the case when things want to get going higher.  The only trouble I see here is that its the last couple of weeks in August and a lot of the players aren't at their desks.  That said, I still have my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  The Fed minutes were a non-event today.  There isn't much else on the economic agenda this week.  Chairman Powell will speak on Friday.  We'll simply keep watching and waiting for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight.  On to Thursday.

Higher today but we did finish well off of the best levels from the session.  The Dow added 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 got oh so close to setting a new all time high but backed off.  RUT did manage to make it past 1700 and on to a new high.  The TRAN set a new all time high as well at the close.  That bodes well for the advance in the overall market to continue.  The VIX turned around today though and that will be something to keep an eye on.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY September puts up another strike price.  It is also possible that today was the price top and we simply head lower from here but I also think that we'll try to hit new highs in the S&P again in the September option cycle.  I could be wrong.  GE came to life and gained 1/3 on OK volume.  Gold was higher and made it back to $1200 on the futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional gains, this time on light volume.  Gold has had a nice bounce but the gold shares are not following.  That isn't a positive sign.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting price action today as we had a good rally going but it stalled at resistance.  There's plenty of time left in the September option cycle so there is no rush to do anything.  That said, we are overbought on a short term basis for most of the major averages.  The Dow and the NYA have the most ground to make up to reach new all time highs as the other major averages are pretty close.  As I've already stated the RUT made it there today.  The price action that we've seen in stocks after last weeks Turkey currency scare has been positive.  I do think that we'll make new all time highs in the S&P 500 quite soon.  It's where we go after that giving me pause as the week moves forward.  I'm still expecting a bearish conclusion to events after we set a new high.  That's my guess for now.  Europe and Asia were higher again as it appears that there's a worldwide push back into stocks.  We'll see what the Fed minutes have to say tomorrow and how the market reacts to that. 

A drift higher today as the Dow rose 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow.  It still looks like we'll see new all time highs in the S&P 500 soon.  RUT looks ready to crack the 1700 level as well.  The VIX is around 12 1/2.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY September puts to a higher strike price.  There isn't a lot of economic data due out this week but we will get the Fed minutes on Wednesday.  Chairman Powell also will give a speech on Friday.  Other than that I don't see any headline risk out there like we saw last week.. Of course that could change in a tweet.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  Gold gained a dozen as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a summer Monday today as we roll into an extended week option cycle.  Perhaps traders will take the next couple of weeks a little slower than we've seen so far this summer.  I'm still looking for weakness going into September but that could change if we see a high volume breakout to new all time highs.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are getting overbought though.  I'll leave in my open order for the SPY puts for now and continue to monitor the situation.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We got some upside follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow added 110 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should the summation index back up.  The rally is mostly in the Dow for now.  I'm keeping an eye on RUT as it hasn't broken out above 1700 with volume yet.  The S&P 500 is once again challenging new all time highs.  It may get there next week if the rally continues.  The VIX is back below its 50 day moving average.  The market made quite a comeback during a turbulent week.  It seems to be saying that we're poised to move higher.  I do still have my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  I think that if RUT breaks out to the upside I will have to cancel that trade.  GE was unchanged on light volume.  Gold was up $6 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was pretty heavy.  Most likely short covering in my opinion because I can't see any reason why anyone would be interested in gold after the beating it has taken.  I don't know, maybe some bottom fishing but the fact remains that the seasonal strength has been nowhere to be found in gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it through option expiration today and we're on to the September cycle.  An extra week thrown in there for September so the premiums are high.  The market was resilient this week considering all the negative headline news.  The S&P 500 seems poised to set a new all time high at some point next week.  If it does start to break out here we'll need to see some volume to confirm the move up.  But it hasn't happened yet and headlines from the weekend could turn things around back down again.  There's plenty of questions without answers at the moment.  It's been a busy summer and I suppose that won't change here in the last two weeks of August.  I'll go over the charts as usual this weekend to try to decipher what I think is going on.  I do believe that new highs in the S&P are coming up soon.  After that, I just don't know.  Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Quite a move higher today as the Dow soared 396 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was higher but not as much as the Dow.  Earnings drove things higher today but the underlying overseas issues remain.  I still have my open order for the SPY September puts out there but we'll need to see more rally for it to get filled.  Volatility has definitely increased this week as there are no summer doldrums to be found.  I am thinking that yesterday was a temporary washout to the downside and now we will once again make an attempt at new all time highs for the S&P 500.  That's my take on things at the moment.  GE was up eight cents and the volume was average.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 3/8.  Volume remains good here as the gold shares have been annihilated.  Theses issues are so oversold it is as if they are going to zero.  My GDX September call trade is dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day left for option expiration week and it feels like this week has been two.  But that's the way it feels when volatility rears its head.  The bulls and bears are fighting it out here and I'm still in the camp that the bears will win out here.  Ideally things will set up to get the SPY September puts at some point next week.  I don't know why the gold shares are so weak here because the metal itself hasn't dropped as much.  Yes, we've broken through $1200 on gold but the percentage move in the gold shares versus gold is out of whack.  I'd like to see a bounce and I'm sure we'll get one but I certainly don't know when.  Asia was a bit lower but Europe scored gains overnight.  We'll close out a tumultuous week tomorrow. 

Turkey fears again today as the Dow lost 137 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Make no mistake that we're heading lower and that rallies can be shorted.  We did finish up from the worst levels of the day but there should be no doubt which way the market is headed.  The VIX jumped above 16 today before falling back to its 200 day moving average.  I guess that I can still hope for a bounce at some point but we all know hope is not a trading strategy.  It appears that I've missed the chance for the SPY September puts here.  The media has yet to jump on the downside bandwagon.  That alone tells me that there's more to come.  GE was off another 1/8 on average volume.  Gold got sold off again, the futures lost almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU fell 4 2/3, while GDX dropped 1 1/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  It's a bloodbath for the gold shares.  These issues are so oversold that you can expect a pretty good snap back rally soon.  It won't amount to a change in trend but it may give me a chance to exit my GDX September call trade without a complete loss.  The seasonality for gold didn't show up this year, in fact it was the exact opposite.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here.  Sooner or later, down.  The gold sell off could be the result of margin calls around the world in addition to the rise in the US dollar.  I do not see the upward trend in the dollar turning around anytime soon.  The safe haven factor there along with rising rates in the US make the dollar the place to be for now.  A rising dollar is not good for US multinational companies, which would keep a lid on the stock market.  Throw in the trade tariff factor and the fundamentals right now are not bullish for stocks.  If these factors start to affect earnings, then you can see where all this is going.  Technically the short term indicators have rolled over and are not all the way oversold yet.  So I will simply have to wait to see if we get some kind of bounce to position myself in the September option period.  But as I've said, it may already be too late.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce back up today as the Dow rose 112 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  A pause in the decline or are we heading back to attempt new all time highs again?  That is the question that will be answered in the coming days.  There's still problems in Turkey so don't expect that issue to just disappear.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn around.  The VIX closed back below its 200 day moving average.  I did leave my open order for the SPY September puts out there.  RUT had a good day and I'm keeping an eye on that.  If RUT breaks to a new all time high, I'll probably take off the SPY trade.  RUT has had a two month consolidation and if it can significantly break above 1700 it would bode well for the overall market.  Hasn't happened yet but it is something to watch.  GE was off another dime on about average volume.  Gold rose a couple bucks as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU fell 7/8, while GDX lost almost 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are completely washed out.  The oversold readings have lasted for weeks.  It is a bloodbath for these shares.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week is upon us and I would normally expect the usual positive bias but we do have the troubles in Turkey to contend with.  The market is susceptible to headline risk at the moment even more so than usual.  I suppose what I'd really like to do is let this week pass and go from there.  There is an extra week in the September option cycle so the premiums remain high.  Even if we did make a nominal new all time high in the S&P, I think that we are going to see some seasonal downside in the September period.  Of course I also expected some seasonal upside for gold and we've seen how that worked out.  Asia was mixed overnight while Europe was little changed.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading headlines.  

Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 125 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Rallies from here can and will be sold.  It already looks like it's too late for the SPY puts.  The VIX closed above its 200 day moving average and that's another sign of what I believe is to come.  The overall market was not as low as the Dow but don't let that fool you.  I'm not sure exactly how far we'll go down but it should be a lot lower than here.  Next months puts are already pricey but I do think that they will work.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  It broke to new fresh lows.  Gold got pummeled despite the trouble overseas.  That is a sure sign of weakness.  The futures lost $18 and closed at $1200.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX shed 5/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  Perhaps this is the final blowout to the downside.  Or maybe not.  The positive seasonality for gold is nowhere to be found this year.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is still focused on the problems in Turkey.  This too will pass.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indexes have rolled over.  We are seeing selling worldwide and that is to be expected.  I don't know if we've gotten to the margin call stage yet.  But we've definitely seen the flight to safety trade with the US dollar and US treasuries.  Did not see it in gold though, just the opposite there.  I do not know what that means except that when things start to head lower, as is the case with gold right now, they usually go further than you think.  It will create opportunity but I have already taken my shot there and will now look for other trades.  I'll still try the SPY September puts if I get the chance.  Europe and Asia sold off last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Headline risk reared its ugly head today and the Dow fell 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Trouble in Turkey as its currency is losing its value rapidly.  It is a repeat of the Greek fiasco from early last year.  The trouble in Turkey had been on the market radar recently but today was the day the market decided to react.  I don't know if this puts a cap on the stock market or if it is just a passing fad that will go away next week.  We'll have to see how it all plays out.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over o it may be too late for the SPY puts.  I am leaving my open order out there though.  GE was off over 1/8 and volume picked up a little.  Gold finished the day flat despite a huge run higher in the US dollar.  The flight to safety is on for the dollar but not for gold.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Seasonality with its usual positive bias has yet to show up for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summer doldrums came to an abrupt halt today.  They didn't last long anyway and have been hard to find this year.  My idea of new all time highs before the expiration in a week seems to be out the window as well.  The VIX has now spiked over 13.  This tells me that the run we just had into the tens for the VIX will be short lived and is probably over.  My hope is that the market sees some kind of final rally attempt next week before we roll over for good here.  But that roll over process might have started today and the puts will remain pricey form here on out.  I can't say for sure what will happen.  The coming days will tell the story.  If we just keep moving lower it's possible that my original thesis of the high being in place from January could prove correct.  If we move back to new all time highs, then that thesis was wrong.  If we somehow do make a nominal new all time high, there still could be a double top in place on the S&P and a rollover still might happen.  Right now we'll just have to keep an eye on what happens over the weekend and see how the market reacts to events on Monday.  I do not think that the problems in Turkey are going to bring the market down with it but I could be wrong.  It may lead to bigger troubles down the road.  I'll simply keep an eye on things and hope there will be a spot for me to get those SPY September puts.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We drifted around for much of the session and then fell towards the close.  The Dow lost 74 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were basically even.  The overall market did not drop as much as the Dow.  The summation index continues sideways.  Today had the feel of the summer doldrums as has the week so far.  I'm still looking for some upside into the expiration next week.  We are working off the short term overbought condition of the market before we head higher is my prognosis at the moment.  The small stocks are acting better than the big caps and the VIX remains low.  I am keeping my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  However I will probably adjust it as we move forward.  The S&P 500 remains within striking distance of a new all time high.  Hasn't happened yet and it's what comes after that if it does for the key to where we're heading.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold dropped a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar moved higher.  The XAU and GDX closed slightly lower but well off of the highs for the day.  The dollar looks to be breaking out above its recent consolidation and that should spell more trouble for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  My GDX September call trade is a big loser.  Without a stop loss order in place after the trade was filled was the mistake made here.  I did not anticipate that the gold shares would simply remain oversold for weeks on end.  But that does not excuse the lousy trading tactics of not using the stop loss.  That is my fault alone.  but it's been that kind of trading year for me so far.  The stock market has been weaker at the end of the day for the past couple of sessions.  To me that isn't a bullish sign.  However I do think that we'll at least make another attempt at a new all time high in the S&P during the upcoming expiration week.  That would give me the opportunity to try the September puts if all goes according to plan.  The market rarely cooperates though.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow lost 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Not a lot of action in price today.  We did get a signal in the McClellan oscillator yesterday for a big move in the next two trading sessions.  We didn't get it today so we'll have to see if it shows up tomorrow.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY September puts.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today finally had the feel of the summer doldrums as not much happened in prices or on the news front.  I'm still thinking that things will be run higher into option expiration next week and that the S&P 500 will hit a new all time high by then.  I could be wrong and often am.  However barring some outside headline event, I do believe that will be the near term path for stocks despite the overbought condition.  We are in a seasonal weak period for stocks.  Combine that with the overbought condition and you can see the basis for trying the SPY puts.  Going out to September should give the trade enough time to work if my order does get filled.  It is also a seasonally strong period for gold and that trade has blown up in my face by having gold stay oversold for weeks on end.  so as usual there are no guarantees when it comes to seasonal trades.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading action. 

Still moving up as the Dow tacked on 126 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index has turned back up but not with any conviction yet.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow today.  The short term technical indicators are overbought for the S&P.  Getting closer to a new all time high there but haven't made it yet.  I did place an open order for the SPY September puts today.  We'll have to see some more upside for this to be filled.  I would like to establish this position between now and option expiration on the 17th.  GE gained a few cents and the volume is still light.  Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar traded a bit lower.  The XAU fell a point, while GDX dropped 1/4.  Volume was about average.  These indexes had one day downside reversals as they opened up but closed down.  The gold shares have been decimated and are completely oversold and staying that way.  If they are any indication about what else may happen here, the US dollar should be about to move higher past the resistance at 95.  The gold shares out perform on the upside for gold and the opposite on the downside.  That is what we are seeing now.  I don't have to tell you that my GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No summer doldrums yet for the stock market this year.  Just waiting for new highs in the S&P 500 and then we'll see what happens from there.  8 days left in the August option cycle and I do not anticipate doing a trade in the August cycle.  An extra week for the September option cycle so the premiums will be a bit pricey.  I do want to attempt the September SPY puts though.  My ideas haven't paid off yet this year and the trading has been brutal so far.  This losing GDX call trade doesn't help with the confidence factor either.  But you've just got to keep moving on in the game and that's what I intend to do.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Grinding higher today as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  It was a one day reversal to the upside for most of the stock indexes.  The small stocks are acting well here and I expect new all time highs set in some of the indices in the near term.  The VIX is below 12 and looks like it could head below 11.  I'm looking out to the SPY September puts for the next trade.  However I am thinking that perhaps things will be run higher into the expiration August 17th.  So for now I'm trying to be patient.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX September calls are big losers as I did not put in a stop loss order as I should have.  Not a lot of money in this trade but the percentage loss will be high.  I do not think that the seasonal rally is going to show up this year as the fundamentals are negative and I don't see any change in that.  The fact that the gold shares have been oversold and have remained that way for weeks is another factor that has negated the usual rally seen in gold at this time of the year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The beginning of August and all seems clear for stocks to move higher in the coming days.  I'll be looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 before option expiration.  We are getting pretty close.  Getting short term overbought for the S&P but that doesn't mean we can't remain that way and pull higher.  For now I'll watch and wait.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading and headlines.

Moving higher as expected as the Dow gained 136 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn back up but it hasn't happened yet.  The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow today.  The jobs report was a bit less than expected but it didn't matter.  That too was expected as the short term technical indicators were turning around.  The VIX is now below 12, which says to me there will be some more upside in the near term.  We may just hit a new all time high on the S&P 500 soon.  I'm really not a believer of this rally but you cannot argue with price.  I'll start looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are pretty pricey.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was light.  Gold was up slightly on the futures as interest rates ticked lower.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  I'm still waiting for the seasonal rally here.  Could be a long wait and my GDX September call trade is already a big loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got through the data and announcements of this week pretty much unscathed.  Earnings have come in pretty good after the recent debacle in the tech sector that sent the small stocks lower.  Where do we go from here is the question that I don't have an answer for at the moment.  I'll do the work over the weekend to try and find out.  There's still a long way to go in the summer but only a couple of weeks remaining in the August option cycle.  At this point I'm inclined to wait and see if we hit a new all time high in the S&P and then short it from there.  But that's just a Friday afternoon idea in the summer.  More work will have to be done to see if that is even a viable strategy.  No summer doldrums yet.  Asia was mixed but European stocks finished higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

I thought that today would be quiet ahead of the jobs report but it was anything but that.  The Dow lost 7 points today but came all the way back from being 200 points lower early on.  Other indices had one day upside reversals.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average.  We opened as if the market was about to fall off a cliff.  But buyers quickly stepped in to bring stocks all the way back and then some.  The small stocks led the way and that is bullish.  The VIX once again held its 200 day moving average.  The market had a feel yesterday of wanting to move higher as the short term technical indicators started to turn up.  We'll see if there is ant follow through tomorrow.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost $10 as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional downside moves on average volume.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are completely blown out to the downside and have remained oversold for a few weeks.  There is no seasonal strength as I had anticipated and my GDX September calls are so far gone in the red that they will not be coming back.  Barring a complete reversal in gold, this trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After todays price action I can only expect higher stock prices tomorrow.  It may not matter what the employment report says.  I also get the feeling now that we could be about to explode to the upside as the shorts will have to cover if we get going higher.  That's just a guess on my part.  The technicals have turned up for the major stock indices.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were lower, with China leading the way down.  We'll see how the weeks closes out tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is back to trending lower.  The NASDAQ was higher as the overall market fared better than the Dow.  The Fed had no surprises and the market really didn't do much after that.  We are oversold on the small cap indices and it looks like the indicators want to turn around to the upside on the big caps.  I canceled my open order for the SPY August puts.  I may revisit this idea going forward but for now I'm going to let the employment report pass and go from there.  I do still favor the downside here but think that we'll see some kind of blip higher first.  I could be wrong.  GE lost all it gained yesterday on light volume.  Perhaps my idea of a double bottom is wrong here but it sure looks like that to me.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish and the positive seasonal effect hasn't showed up.  The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX had a fractional loss.  Volume was average.  My GDX September calls are solidly in the red and this trade looks like it will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The jobs report on Friday will be the next market mover.  I'm guessing tomorrow will be a wait and see affair.  The VIX ticked up a bit today and the Bollinger bands are starting to tighten on the daily chart there.  So we should see something rather big in the market pretty soon.  The surprise to me would be if it was to the upside.  We'll see.  The gold shares are oversold and staying there.  That certainly isn't bullish.  At this point about all I can do is wait for a bounce to cut the loss.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.