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Friday, May 20, 2016

We got the bounce that was due as the Dow rose 65 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is still heading down.  Once again the light volume rise is a concern.  The potential for a head and shoulders top that has taken 2 months to build is still there for the S&P 500.  However there is also the possibility that we are simply moving in a sideways channel and are due to head back up to the upper range.  The volume just isn't there for whatever reason.  I am looking at the SPY June calls and purchasing them perhaps at the beginning of next week.  But I will consider this idea more closely over the weekend.  GE was up almost 20 cents on light volume.  Still oversold on the short term technical indicators here.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar slightly higher on todays trading session.  The XAU and GDX had minor gains on average volume.  This area took a breather today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's still a tough trading environment as we are at the moment of truth for the major averages.  We are either going to break down hard or get some type of at least short term rally.  The small stocks are acting better here and that has me leaning towards a positive resolution.  The breadth is also improving, which is another plus.  But the volume has been pretty light lately and the summation index is still heading down.  We haven't seen a solid break of the 2040 level on the S&P but if that occurs we're heading lower.  I suppose that the jury is still out on the near term direction of the major indices.  I'll take a look at all the angles over the weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week.  Most foreign markets were higher overnight.  There will be a lot to try and sort out over the next 2 days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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