Friday, May 13, 2016
Another downer as the Dow fell 185 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. But you cannot argue with price. 2040 is the near term support for the S&P 500 in my opinion. Low volume means no interest and I do not see a catalyst for higher prices at this time. The short term technical indicators have rolled back over. There is now only a potential head and shoulders top being formed here in the S&P. However I have seen this pointed out in the media and when everybody sees the same thing it usually doesn't work. The economic data wasn't really a mover. The market seemed to fall on its own weight. GE was off almost 1/2 on good volume. Gold was up $4 on the futures despite a rise in the US dollar. The XAU rose 1/2 and GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just a week to go in the May option cycle. The TRAN has broken down and it is a leader at times. The small stocks are better performers here but it hasn't translated into higher prices. They are just going down less. The environment is negative but we have not seen any downside washout. It is a tough trading time. A quick bounce higher would wipe out any current gains in the puts. I'll probably just stay on the sidelines next week but you never know. If the head and shoulders top is valid, things will get ugly in a hurry. If we hold the 2040 level in the S&P, a trade in the calls could prove profitable. But like I said before you don't want to get into a guessing game. I'll consider the probabilities over the weekend and take it from there. It still appears that a case can be made either way. However it does seem that the power to buy stocks has waned. Perhaps there are liquidity issues that I'm not aware of. That's just a guess but the light volume does mean something. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.