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Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 217 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were not even 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  It appears that yesterday was the opportunity to purchase the SPY May puts.  The signals here are mixed and I'm still in the bearish camp for now.  I suppose that if we do see a light volume rally tomorrow it could be worth shorting.  But we are running out of time in the May option cycle and any trade attempted would have very high risk.  The fact that we got zero upside follow through is not a positive.  We have options expiration week coming up and that usually brings some volatility.  There is no point in guessing what will happen.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rose $14 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was OK.  Still waiting for a correction in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I would like to put on a trade before the May option cycle ends but can't seem to find a spot.  Todays price action was bearish.  The rally yesterday sprang up out of nowhere on light volume.  That is typical of a negative market.  Perhaps if we see some early strength tomorrow it will be an opportunity to get the May SPY puts.  But the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  The small stocks and the overall market were not as weak as the Dow.  That could mean something positive.  Or not.  There wasn't wholesale selling of everything today, which is usually the sign of trouble.  So once again I think we are in a position where it could go either way though I'm bearish.  My option indicator is leaning towards the bullish side as there are more puts being purchased.  I don't know if I have the discipline here to simply sit it out unless a valid signal comes through.  As usual the battle in trading is most of the time with yourself.  I'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Foreign markets were generally lower with no major declines.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight.

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